Georgia Southern @ Nevada: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Nevada

Weather at kickoff90°F9 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

0-1 · Power #90

▲ winner

Final

Nevada

1-1 · Power #102

final

Closing spread

NEV -1.5

✓ GASO W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 28–31 NEV

✗ NEV (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -3.5

CloseNEV -1.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGASO -3.5

5 → NEV

CloseNEV -1.5

5 pts toward Nevada

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GASO -3.5 · closed NEV -1.5 · moved 5 toward NEVmodel NEV -5.5

model NEV -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 45% (62 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGASO -3.5

CloseNEV -1.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEV as a 1.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.6 against an average line of 2.4; 51.8 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CONN vs USF 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-1	21–24	L	U57
Close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	16–40	L	O53
Close	ODU vs ARST 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-5	29–26	L	U56
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Loose	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Loose	MASS vs CONN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	18–31	L	U50.75
Loose	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Loose	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-1.5	28–52	L	O55
Loose	UTEP vs UNLV 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	28–45	L	O49.5
Loose	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
NEV WW	2-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; NEV home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO O	1-0	100%	0-1
NEV UO	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
NEV	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−6.0 →−8.4▼ 2.4#105

NEV−15.0 →−9.5▲ 5.5#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

GASO

Longer bar = better

NEV

#72

Offense

◀ GASO better

#91

#134

Defense

NEV better ▶

#100

0.0 #81

Turnovers

NEV better ▶

+0.5 #54

85 plays #5

Pace

◀ GASO faster

63 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #35	27.5 #98	GASO
Yards / play	5.42 #92	5.92 #98	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #68	+0.22 #106	GASO
Success rate	40% #93	43% #99	Even

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: NEV offense

	NEV off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #90	56.0 #134	NEV
Yards / play	5.48 #89	9.86 #135	NEV
PPA / play	+0.09 #89	+0.54 #132	NEV
Success rate	40% #94	57% #133	NEV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.