UAB @ UL Monroe: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at UL Monroe

Weather at kickoff81°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 275 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UAB

1-0 · Power #116

final

Final

UL Monroe

1-0 · Power #115

▲ winner

Closing spread

UAB -10.5

✓ ULM W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 31–21 ULM

✗ UAB (78%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUAB -11.5

CloseUAB -10.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUAB -11.5

1 → ULM

CloseUAB -10.5

1 pt toward UL Monroe

Total

Open54.5

▲ 1

Close55.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UAB -11.5 · closed UAB -10.5 · moved 1 toward ULMmodel UAB -12

model UAB -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 56% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUAB -11.5

CloseUAB -10.5

Total54.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UAB as a 10.5-point road favorite at ULM, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ULM won 32–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 10; 55.1 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB @ FIU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-10	38–6	W	U53.5
Close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Close	UTSA @ UTEP 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-11.5	44–23	W	O53
Loose	LIB @ JXST 2023 · Week 7 · loose	-7	31–13	W	U59
Loose	LIB @ SYR 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar total	-6.5	21–24	L	U54
Loose	JMU @ ARST 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-11.5	42–20	W	O55
Loose	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · loose	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Loose	SMU @ LT 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-11	39–37	L	O65.5
Loose	SMU @ RICE 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & rest	-12.5	36–31	L	O59
Loose	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
ULM W	1-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: UAB away, as favorite; ULM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB U	0-1	0%	1-0
ULM U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ULM	1-9 10%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−6.4 →−4.9▲ 1.5#88

ULM−17.3 →−18.3▼ 1.0#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

UAB

Longer bar = better

ULM

#51

Offense

◀ UAB better

#75

#30

Defense

◀ UAB better

#85

−1.0 #100

Turnovers

ULM better ▶

+1.0 #44

85 plays #4

Pace

◀ UAB faster

56 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: UAB offense

	UAB off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #44	14.0 #61	Even
Yards / play	6.08 #69	5.40 #86	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #66	+0.23 #107	UAB
Success rate	55% #24	41% #86	UAB

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: UAB defense

	ULM off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #78	3.0 #15	UAB
Yards / play	6.00 #72	2.85 #14	UAB
PPA / play	+0.30 #56	−0.21 #38	Even
Success rate	40% #95	34% #53	UAB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.