Charlotte @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at North Carolina

Weather at kickoff82°F8 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Charlotte

0-1 · Power #119

final

Final

North Carolina

1-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -21.5

✓ CLT W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

CLT 14–35 UNC

✓ UNC (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -21

CloseUNC -21.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNC -21

0.5 → UNC

CloseUNC -21.5

0.5 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNC -21 · closed UNC -21.5 · moved 0.5 toward UNCmodel UNC -21

model UNC -21

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–23.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 44% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -21

CloseUNC -21.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 21.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 38–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.8 against an average line of 21.4; 56 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Very close	USC vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	41–34	L	O55.5
Very close	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Very close	SC vs VAN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & total	-18.75	21–20	L	U50
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-22	44–10	W	O50.5
Close	ND vs NAVY 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-21	34–6	W	U47.5
Close	TEX vs RICE 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-26	58–0	W	O52
Close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Close	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-21	41–28	L	O55
Close	WSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-17	38–7	W	U52.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLT –	0-0	—	—	—
UNC W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: CLT away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLT –	0-0	—	0-1
UNC U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 183 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLT	2-8 20%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-4-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLT−9.5 →−11.5▼ 2.0#120

UNC+7.2 →+5.3▼ 1.9#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CLT

Longer bar = better

UNC

#122

Offense

Even

#115

#99

Defense

UNC better ▶

#72

−1.0 #110

Turnovers

UNC better ▶

0.0 #85

76 plays #21

Pace

◀ CLT faster

64 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	CLT off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	7.0 #126	17.0 #75	UNC
Yards / play	4.26 #112	4.44 #62	UNC
PPA / play	−0.20 #121	+0.05 #75	UNC
Success rate	26% #130	38% #76	UNC

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #106	30.0 #105	Even
Yards / play	3.94 #118	7.12 #119	Even
PPA / play	−0.13 #116	+0.11 #87	CLT
Success rate	33% #121	41% #83	CLT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.