Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Navy · Conference game
Closing spread
NAVY -11.5
✓ NAVY W
Total
43.5
▲ Over · 49 pts
Model before kickoff
TEM 18–28 NAVY
✓ NAVY (77%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNAVY -13
CloseNAVY -11.5
Total44.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenNAVY -13
1.5 → TEM
CloseNAVY -11.5
1.5 pts toward Temple
Total
Open44.5
▼ 1
Close43.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NAVY -13 · closed NAVY -11.5 · moved 1.5 toward TEMmodel NAVY -5
model NAVY -5
Opened 44.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 1 downmodel 46
model 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 44% (75 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNAVY -13
CloseNAVY -11.5
Total44.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
NAVY as an 11.5-point home favorite against TEM. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Temple ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Temple
1.5 pts (NAVY -13 → NAVY -11.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Temple has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 120 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-9 10% | 2-8 20% | 5-4 56% | |
| 5-5 50% | 3-5-1 38% | 4-4 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
TEM 1–0 NAVY
TEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · TEM has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 2023 | Navy 18 @ Temple 32 | NAVY -6.5 | TEM W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
TEM−13.8 →−15.9▼ 2.1#129
NAVY−17.5 →−13.5▲ 4.0#124
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
Longer bar = better
#133
Offense
NAVY better ▶#50
#101
Defense
NAVY better ▶#60
−6.0 #135
Turnovers
NAVY better ▶0.0 #58
61 plays #103
Pace
NAVY faster ▶72 plays #31
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| TEM off | NAVY def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 3.0 #131 | 21.0 #81 | NAVY |
| Yards / play | 3.23 #130 | 4.96 #73 | NAVY |
| PPA / play | −0.76 #135 | −0.15 #45 | NAVY |
| Success rate | 19% #134 | 31% #39 | NAVY |
| NAVY off | TEM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 49.0 #26 | 51.0 #127 | NAVY |
| Yards / play | 6.07 #70 | 5.82 #94 | NAVY |
| PPA / play | +0.35 #46 | +0.28 #110 | NAVY |
| Success rate | 48% #56 | 38% #71 | Even |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
68° · 8 mph
gusts 25 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TEM8d
NAVY7d
TEM +1 day
Tempo
Average 133 plays
slowavg 133fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

