Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Navy · Conference game
Weather at kickoff68°F8 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›
0-1 · Power #127
11
final
Final
@
1-0 · Power #61
38
▲ winner
Closing spread
NAVY -11.5
✓ NAVY W
Total
43.5
▲ Over · 49 pts
Model before kickoff
TEM 18–28 NAVY
✓ NAVY (77%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNAVY -13
CloseNAVY -11.5
Total44.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
1.5 pts toward Temple
Total
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened NAVY -13 · closed NAVY -11.5 · moved 1.5 toward TEMmodel NAVY -5
Opened 44.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 1 downmodel 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 44% (75 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenNAVY -13
CloseNAVY -11.5
Total44.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for NAVY as an 11.5-point home favorite against TEM. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Temple ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward Temple
1.5 pts (NAVY -13 → NAVY -11.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Temple has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
TEM−13.8 →−15.9▼ 2.1#129
NAVY−17.5 →−13.5▲ 4.0#124
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

TEM
Longer bar = better
NAVY
#133
Offense
NAVY better ▶
#50
#101
Defense
NAVY better ▶
#60
−6.0 #135
Turnovers
NAVY better ▶
0.0 #58
61 plays #103
Pace
NAVY faster ▶
72 plays #31
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When TEM has the ball
Advantage: NAVY defense
TEM offNAVY defEdge
Points / game 3.0 #131 21.0 #81 NAVY
Yards / play 3.23 #130 4.96 #73 NAVY
PPA / play −0.76 #135 −0.15 #45 NAVY
Success rate 19% #134 31% #39 NAVY
When NAVY has the ball
Advantage: NAVY offense
NAVY offTEM defEdge
Points / game 49.0 #26 51.0 #127 NAVY
Yards / play 6.07 #70 5.82 #94 NAVY
PPA / play +0.35 #46 +0.28 #110 NAVY
Success rate 48% #56 38% #71 Even

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
NAVY +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
68° · 8 mph
gusts 25 mph · at kickoff
Rest
TEM8d
NAVY7d
TEM +1 day
Tempo
Average 133 plays
slowavg 133fast

Schedules, links & other games

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