South Florida @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Alabama

Weather at kickoff82°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

1-0 · Power #91

final

Final

Alabama

1-0 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -33.5

✓ USF W

Total

65.5

▼ Under · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 11–44 ALA

✓ ALA (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -31

CloseALA -33.5

Total63.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -31

2.5 → ALA

CloseALA -33.5

2.5 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open63.5

▲ 2

Close65.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -31 · closed ALA -33.5 · moved 2.5 toward ALAmodel ALA -34.5

model ALA -34.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 31.5–35.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 50% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -31

CloseALA -33.5

Total63.5 → 65.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like ALA as a 33.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 42–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 58 points stayed under 65.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 57.5 against an average line of 34.5; 57.5 points a game (usually 57.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ALA vs WKU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-34	63–0	W	O60
Loose	TEX vs CSU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-35	52–0	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF –	0-0	—	—	—
ALA W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF –	0-0	—	1-0
ALA O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 31. 44% of games with totals 61.5–69.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
ALA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	8-1 89%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USF 0–1 ALA ALA leads · 1 game since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	Alabama 17 @ South Florida 3	ALA -34.5	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−4.4 →−3.3▲ 1.1#81

ALA+20.2 →+25.1▲ 4.9#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

USF

Longer bar = better

ALA

#60

Offense

ALA better ▶

#20

#10

Defense

Even

+2.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ USF better

+1.0 #47

69 plays #53

Pace

◀ USF faster

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	USF off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	48.0 #32	0.0 #11	ALA
Yards / play	5.84 #79	2.16 #4	ALA
PPA / play	+0.19 #74	−0.41 #11	ALA
Success rate	49% #53	21% #10	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	63.0 #7	3.0 #23	Even
Yards / play	9.23 #11	2.30 #6	Even
PPA / play	+1.13 #2	−0.43 #9	Even
Success rate	48% #58	12% #1	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.