Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Michigan
Closing spread
TEX -6.5
✓ TEX W
Total
41.5
▲ Over · 43 pts
Model before kickoff
TEX 26–21 MICH
✓ TEX (64%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTEX -4
CloseTEX -6.5
Total48.5 → 41.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTEX -4
2.5 → TEX
CloseTEX -6.5
2.5 pts toward Texas
Total
Open48.5
▼ 7
Close41.5
Down 7 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEX -4 · closed TEX -6.5 · moved 2.5 toward TEXmodel MICH -0.5
model MICH -0.5
Opened 48.5 · closed 41.5 · moved 7 downmodel 46.5
model 46.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 59% (65 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTEX -4
CloseTEX -6.5
Total48.5 → 41.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
TEX as a 6.5-point road favorite at MICH. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Texas ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Texas
2.5 pts (TEX -4 → TEX -6.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 7
48.5 → 41.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Michigan have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 83 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 8-2 80% | 5-4-1 56% | 4-5 44% |
 MICH | 10-0 100% | 7-2 78% | 6-3 67% |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
TEX+19.1 →+21.3▲ 2.2#4
MICH+21.1 →+18.9▼ 2.2#9
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
TEXLonger bar = better
MICH#25
Offense
◀ TEX better#89
#24
Defense
◀ TEX better#41
+1.0 #35
Turnovers
Even+1.0 #29
74 plays #23
Pace
◀ TEX faster61 plays #102
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When TEX has the ball| TEX off | MICH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 52.0 #19 | 10.0 #43 | TEX |
| Yards / play | 7.36 #34 | 4.21 #49 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.40 #33 | −0.26 #24 | Even |
| Success rate | 60% #13 | 33% #46 | TEX |
When MICH has the ball| MICH off | TEX def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 30.0 #75 | 0.0 #9 | TEX |
| Yards / play | 4.41 #109 | 3.43 #25 | TEX |
| PPA / play | +0.04 #98 | −0.39 #12 | TEX |
| Success rate | 44% #73 | 33% #49 | TEX |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MICH +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
56° · 13 mph
gusts 26 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
TEX7d
MICH7d
Even
Tempo
Average 135 plays
slowavg 133fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
DUKE @ 
NU
BGSU @ 
PSU
ARK @ 
OKST
AKR @ 
RUTG
ISU @ 
IOWA
CAL @ 
AUB
SC @ 
UK
MSU @ 
MD
EMU @ 
WASH
MTSU @ 
MISS