UTSA @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Texas

Weather at kickoff93°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

UTSA

1-1 · Power #82

final

Final

Texas

2-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -36.5

✓ TEX W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

UTSA 8–44 TEX

✓ TEX (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -33.5

CloseTEX -36.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -33.5

3 → TEX

CloseTEX -36.5

3 pts toward Texas

Total

Open54.5

▲ 2

Close56.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -33.5 · closed TEX -36.5 · moved 3 toward TEXmodel TEX -36

model TEX -36

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 34.5–38.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 51% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -33.5

CloseTEX -36.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like TEX as a 36.5-point home favorite against UTSA, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 56–7; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 63 points went over 56.5, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 42.7 against an average line of 38.3; 60.7 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UGA vs MIZ 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-40	43–6	L	U59
Loose	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-41	49–21	L	O56
Loose	ALA vs WKU 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-34	63–0	W	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTSA –L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1
TEX WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: UTSA away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTSA –O	1-0	100%	1-1
TEX UO	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 206 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTSA	8-2 80%	5-3-1 63%	4-5 44%
TEX	9-1 90%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

UTSA 0–3 TEX TEX leads · 3 games since 2022 · TEX has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTSA+1.0 →−5.2▼ 6.2#90

TEX+19.1 →+25.3▲ 6.2#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UTSA

Longer bar = better

TEX

#103

Offense

TEX better ▶

#36

#75

Defense

TEX better ▶

#21

−0.5 #100

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+2.0 #11

76 plays #14

Pace

◀ UTSA faster

71 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	UTSA off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #112	6.0 #9	TEX
Yards / play	4.93 #112	4.25 #36	TEX
PPA / play	+0.11 #79	−0.31 #3	TEX
Success rate	37% #108	33% #35	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	41.5 #25	32.5 #115	TEX
Yards / play	6.58 #43	5.45 #87	TEX
PPA / play	+0.34 #34	+0.01 #69	TEX
Success rate	48% #43	32% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 68 FBS teams

UTSA scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	8.5	3.5	12.0	3.5	3.5	7.0
TEX allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	3.0	4.5

TEX scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	7.0	20.5	27.5	10.5	3.5	14.0
UTSA allowed	8.5	12.0	20.5	5.0	7.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.