LSU @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F16 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

LSU

1-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

South Carolina

2-0 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

LSU -6.5

✓ SC W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

LSU 30–24 SC

✓ LSU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -8.5

CloseLSU -6.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -8.5

2 → SC

CloseLSU -6.5

2 pts toward South Carolina

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -8.5 · closed LSU -6.5 · moved 2 toward SCmodel LSU -6.5 matches the line

model LSU -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 60% (67 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -8.5

CloseLSU -6.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at SC, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 36–33; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 5.9; 43.6 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEX @ ISU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	26–16	W	U44.5
Close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-7	26–16	W	U48
Close	WVU @ VT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-2	33–10	W	U49.75
Close	CLEM @ MIA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-6	20–28	L	O45
Close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Close	UNC @ PITT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	41–24	W	O49.5
Loose	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Loose	LSU @ MSST 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	28–25	W	U55
Loose	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & rest	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LSU LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2
SC LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: LSU away, as favorite; SC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LSU UO	1-1	50%	1-1
SC UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 196 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	7-2 78%
SC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LSU+17.5 →+15.2▼ 2.3#14

SC+5.6 →+6.2▲ 0.6#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

LSU

Longer bar = better

#44

Offense

◀ LSU better

#112

#113

Defense

SC better ▶

#29

0.0 #84

Turnovers

SC better ▶

+2.0 #15

62 plays #102

Pace

SC faster ▶

65 plays #81

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #68	12.5 #33	SC
Yards / play	6.53 #45	3.61 #16	SC
PPA / play	+0.33 #35	−0.17 #21	Even
Success rate	51% #27	35% #45	Even

When SC has the ball

Even matchup

	SC off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #89	24.0 #91	Even
Yards / play	4.19 #127	6.18 #110	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #112	+0.31 #124	Even
Success rate	35% #119	51% #128	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 10 FBS teams

LSU scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	4.5	12.0	16.5	14.0	1.5	15.5
SC allowed	3.5	3.0	6.5	4.5	1.5	6.0

SC scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.5	3.0	11.5	8.5	7.0	15.5
LSU allowed	3.5	8.5	12.0	5.0	7.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.