Vanderbilt @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Georgia State

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Vanderbilt

2-0 · Power #53

final

Final

Georgia State

1-1 · Power #110

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -8.5

✓ GAST W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 29–21 GAST

✗ VAN (70%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -9.5

CloseVAN -8.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -9.5

1 → GAST

CloseVAN -8.5

1 pt toward Georgia State

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -9.5 · closed VAN -8.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel VAN -3.5

model VAN -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 59% (83 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -9.5

CloseVAN -8.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as an 8.5-point road favorite at GAST, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: GAST won 36–32 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 6.9; 37.4 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SJSU @ FRES 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	10–17	L	U47
Close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Close	OHIO @ NIU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	DUKE @ GT 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	20–23	L	U54
Close	SDSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–10	P	U45.25
Close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Loose	SDSU @ SJSU 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-9.75	19–13	L	U41

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0
GAST –L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: VAN away, as favorite; GAST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OO	2-0	100%	2-0
GAST –U	0-1	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 169 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%
GAST	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN−6.1 →−3.2▲ 2.9#78

GAST−5.1 →−9.5▼ 4.4#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

VAN

Longer bar = better

GAST

#34

Offense

◀ VAN better

#86

#47

Defense

◀ VAN better

#112

+1.5 #19

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #30

59 plays #115

Pace

GAST faster ▶

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	44.5 #16	28.0 #103	VAN
Yards / play	6.09 #67	7.02 #131	VAN
PPA / play	+0.31 #38	+0.27 #117	VAN
Success rate	54% #16	43% #97	VAN

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: VAN defense

	GAST off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #117	13.5 #38	VAN
Yards / play	5.52 #84	4.33 #41	VAN
PPA / play	+0.10 #84	+0.01 #67	Even
Success rate	45% #58	34% #40	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 68 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.5	15.5	22.0	5.0	14.0	19.0
GAST allowed	7.0	3.5	10.5	10.5	7.0	17.5

GAST scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	1.5	5.0	6.5	8.0	3.5	11.5
VAN allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	5.0	7.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.