Jacksonville State @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Eastern Michigan

Weather at kickoff76°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

0-2 · Power #81

final

Final

Eastern Michigan

1-1 · Power #120

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -2.5

✓ EMU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 26–24 EMU

✗ JXST (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -1

CloseJXST -2.5

Total48.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -1

3.5 → JXST

CloseJXST -2.5

3.5 pts toward Jacksonville State

Total

Open48.5

▲ 5

Close53.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -1 · closed JXST -2.5 · moved 3.5 toward JXSTmodel EMU -1.5

model EMU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 42% (76 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -1

CloseJXST -2.5

Total48.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like JXST as a 2.5-point road favorite at EMU, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 37–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 71 points went over 53.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 24 against an average line of 3; 66 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WMU @ EMU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3	45–21	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
EMU WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; EMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST OO	2-0	100%	0-2
EMU UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 206 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	7-3 70%
EMU	5-5 50%	6-3-1 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JXST 1–0 EMU JXST leads · 1 game since 2023 · JXST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Eastern Michigan 0 @ Jacksonville State 21	JXST -6.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−4.5 →−10.1▼ 5.6#109

EMU−13.3 →−11.7▲ 1.6#117

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

JXST

Longer bar = better

EMU

#108

Offense

Even

#111

#134

Defense

EMU better ▶

#115

−1.0 #107

Turnovers

EMU better ▶

0.0 #63

59 plays #114

Pace

EMU faster ▶

64 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #107	22.0 #78	EMU
Yards / play	5.53 #82	6.48 #118	JXST
PPA / play	−0.05 #120	+0.31 #126	Even
Success rate	34% #124	57% #136	Even

When EMU has the ball

Advantage: EMU offense

	EMU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #115	52.0 #137	EMU
Yards / play	4.56 #120	7.85 #134	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #121	+0.36 #131	Even
Success rate	41% #89	57% #135	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 68 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	1.5	10.5	12.0	0.0	8.5	8.5
EMU allowed	0.0	10.5	10.5	8.0	3.5	11.5

EMU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	1.5	8.5	10.0	1.5	7.0	8.5
JXST allowed	15.5	14.0	29.5	8.5	14.0	22.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.