Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Middle Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

1-1 · Power #103

▲ winner

Final

Middle Tennessee

1-1 · Power #129

final

Closing spread

WKU -10.5

✓ WKU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 32–23 MTSU

✓ WKU (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -8

CloseWKU -10.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -8

2.5 → WKU

CloseWKU -10.5

2.5 pts toward Western Kentucky

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -8 · closed WKU -10.5 · moved 2.5 toward WKUmodel WKU -1

model WKU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 55% (42 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -8

CloseWKU -10.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WKU as a 10.5-point road favorite at MTSU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WKU won 49–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 9.3; 60 points a game (usually 55). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OHIO @ AKR 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-9.75	34–17	W	U55
Close	BGSU @ AKR 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	31–28	L	O49.5
Loose	USU @ CSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-14	17–13	L	U45.5
Loose	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Loose	UNT @ USM 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.25	38–14	W	O49
Loose	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Loose	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Loose	SDSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation	-6	41–34	W	O52
Loose	UTSA @ TEM 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar total	-14	49–34	W	O56
Loose	USM @ ARST 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	37–44	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WKU LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0
MTSU –L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: WKU away, as favorite; MTSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OU	1-1	50%	1-1
MTSU –U	0-1	0%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 206 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%
MTSU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WKU 1–0 MTSU WKU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WKU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2023	Middle Tennessee 10 @ Western Kentucky 31	WKU -6.5	WKU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−5.2 →−10.7▼ 5.5#112

MTSU−7.5 →−13.9▼ 6.4#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WKU

Longer bar = better

MTSU

#117

Offense

Even

#117

#125

Defense

Even

#131

−0.5 #99

Turnovers

◀ WKU better

−1.0 #121

66 plays #75

Pace

Even

67 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	15.5 #126	38.5 #127	Even
Yards / play	4.67 #117	7.22 #132	Even
PPA / play	−0.05 #118	+0.36 #130	Even
Success rate	38% #107	55% #133	WKU

When MTSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MTSU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #120	31.5 #114	Even
Yards / play	4.56 #121	6.93 #127	Even
PPA / play	+0.02 #104	+0.48 #136	MTSU
Success rate	35% #121	49% #123	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 68 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	5.0	3.5	8.5	0.0	7.0	7.0
MTSU allowed	8.5	9.5	18.0	10.0	10.5	20.5

MTSU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	0.0	5.5	5.5
WKU allowed	10.5	10.5	21.0	7.0	3.5	10.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.