Toledo @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Western Kentucky

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

3-0 · Power #88

final

Final

Western Kentucky

2-1 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -2.5

✓ WKU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 30–28 WKU

✗ TOL (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -0.5

CloseTOL -2.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWKU -0.5

3 → TOL

CloseTOL -2.5

3 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Close60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WKU -0.5 · closed TOL -2.5 · moved 3 toward TOLmodel TOL -3

model TOL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 44% (80 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWKU -0.5

CloseTOL -2.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 2.5-point road favorite at WKU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: WKU won 26–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 4.2; 58.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	RICE @ USF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	29–42	L	O57.5
Close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-4	24–31	L	U59
Close	CSU @ USU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3	24–26	L	U58.5
Close	MD @ ILL 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-7	20–17	L	U61.5
Close	HOU @ TULN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	40–22	W	O60
Close	TTU @ BAY 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	39–14	W	U59.5
Close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Loose	FAU @ UNT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-3	28–45	L	O67.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
WKU LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; WKU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OOO	3-0	100%	3-0
WKU OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
WKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−0.4 →−1.9▼ 1.5#74

WKU−5.2 →−7.4▼ 2.2#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TOL

Longer bar = better

WKU

#39

Offense

◀ TOL better

#67

#54

Defense

◀ TOL better

#124

+1.7 #13

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

0.0 #77

62 plays #101

Pace

WKU faster ▶

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	42.7 #19	28.0 #101	TOL
Yards / play	6.19 #61	7.71 #133	TOL
PPA / play	+0.28 #37	+0.45 #137	TOL
Success rate	47% #38	49% #126	TOL

When WKU has the ball

Even matchup

	WKU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #88	16.7 #47	TOL
Yards / play	6.12 #63	4.94 #60	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #63	+0.01 #54	Even
Success rate	45% #54	37% #53	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	11.7 #13	12.7 #30	24.3 #16	9.3 #27	9.0 #31	18.3 #29
WKU allowed	7.0 #95	7.0 #68	14.0 #89	9.3 #115	4.7 #55	14.0 #97

WKU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	8.0 #42	4.7 #106	12.7 #86	7.0 #61	7.0 #57	14.0 #62
TOL allowed	2.3 #23	6.3 #56	8.7 #44	3.3 #33	4.7 #55	8.0 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.