Southern Miss @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Jacksonville State

Weather at kickoff92°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-2 · Power #132

final

Final

Jacksonville State

0-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -6.5

✓ JXST W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 26–32 JXST

✓ JXST (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -6.5

CloseJXST -6.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -6.5

no move

CloseJXST -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open60.5

no move

Close60.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -6.5 · unchangedmodel JXST -6.5 matches the line

model JXST -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (78 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -6.5

CloseJXST -6.5

Total60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 6.5-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 44–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 5.1; 52.2 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5
Close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Close	CMU vs BALL 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	16–17	L	U63.5
Close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Close	USF vs CLT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-7	48–14	W	O56.75
Close	WKU vs MTSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	31–10	W	U60
Close	LT vs CLT 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	42–32	W	O58.25
Close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-3	48–26	W	O55
Close	ARST vs TXST 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-2	22–24	L	U62.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LW–	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
JXST LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UU–	0-2	0%	1-2
JXST OOO	3-0	100%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 10 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	5-3 63%
JXST	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

USM 1–1 JXST Series tied · 2 games since 2024 · USM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−10.1 →−14.3▼ 4.2#124

JXST−4.5 →−10.7▼ 6.2#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USM

Longer bar = better

JXST

#94

Offense

Even

#100

#99

Defense

◀ USM better

#129

−1.0 #117

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

−0.7 #101

50 plays #137

Pace

JXST faster ▶

61 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #114	47.0 #134	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #42	6.73 #127	USM
PPA / play	+0.01 #111	+0.25 #123	Even
Success rate	39% #108	52% #132	USM

When JXST has the ball

Even matchup

	JXST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #95	30.0 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.82 #84	5.85 #97	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #118	+0.15 #92	USM
Success rate	39% #104	43% #100	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 120 FBS teams

USM scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	10.5	7.0	17.5	3.5	8.5	12.0
JXST allowed	15.0 #118	14.0 #113	29.0 #118	6.7 #77	9.3 #104	16.0 #104

JXST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	3.3 #96	11.3 #39	14.7 #65	0.0 #117	9.3 #26	9.3 #97
USM allowed	8.5	10.5	19.0	7.0	3.5	10.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.