South Alabama @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Thu, Sep 19, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at App State · Conference game

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South Alabama

1-2 · Power #66

▲ winner

Final

App State

2-1 · Power #99

final

Closing spread

—

Total

—

Model before kickoff

USA 31–35 APP

✗ APP (61%) lost

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	—
APP LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	—

Venue/role: USA away; APP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OUO	2-1	67%	1-2
APP UOU	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
APP	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA+0.8 →−2.9▼ 3.7#80

APP−0.7 →−3.9▼ 3.2#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USA

Longer bar = better

APP

#12

Offense

◀ USA better

#76

#102

Defense

◀ USA better

#125

+1.3 #20

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−1.0 #115

66 plays #63

Pace

APP faster ▶

74 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	48.3 #8	31.7 #116	USA
Yards / play	7.76 #11	7.02 #131	USA
PPA / play	+0.44 #11	+0.30 #127	USA
Success rate	53% #16	48% #125	USA

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #90	29.7 #106	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #62	5.96 #100	APP
PPA / play	+0.19 #62	+0.17 #96	APP
Success rate	41% #89	43% #104	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 109 FBS teams

USA scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	9.0 #31	18.0 #3	27.0 #8	14.0 #3	7.3 #41	21.3 #11
APP allowed	17.0 #108	9.3 #84	26.3 #106	4.3 #43	1.0 #8	5.3 #20

APP scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	3.3 #88	11.3 #31	14.7 #58	7.0 #45	4.7 #71	11.7 #64
USA allowed	6.7 #78	7.0 #59	13.7 #71	11.7 #104	4.3 #44	16.0 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.