Stanford @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Fri, Sep 20, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Stanford

1-1 · Power #96

▲ winner

Final

Syracuse

2-0 · Power #43

final

Closing spread

SYR -9.5

✓ STAN W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 22–33 SYR

✗ SYR (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -8.5

CloseSYR -9.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSYR -8.5

1 → SYR

CloseSYR -9.5

1 pt toward Syracuse

Total

Open58.5

▼ 2

Close56.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SYR -8.5 · closed SYR -9.5 · moved 1 toward SYRmodel SYR -13

model SYR -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 42% (60 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSYR -8.5

CloseSYR -9.5

Total58.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SYR as a 9.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: STAN won 26–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 10; 56.2 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Close	HOU vs ECU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-13.5	31–24	L	U56.5
Close	WAKE vs VAN 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & team ratings	-9.5	36–20	W	U56.5
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-10.5	31–24	L	U56
Close	APP vs GAST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	42–17	W	U60.25
Close	GT vs BC 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-6	23–38	L	O57
Close	MIA vs DUKE 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-10	21–45	L	O59
Close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread	-10	42–40	L	O52
Close	PUR vs ILL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-10.5	13–9	L	U53.25
Close	FLA vs MIZ 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread	-10.75	24–17	L	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0
SYR LW	1-1	50%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; SYR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OU	1-1	50%	1-1
SYR OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
SYR	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−5.0 →−4.6▲ 0.4#85

SYR−2.1 →+3.2▲ 5.3#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

STAN

Longer bar = better

SYR

#90

Offense

SYR better ▶

#33

#87

Defense

Even

#101

+0.5 #46

Turnovers

◀ STAN better

0.0 #78

68 plays #51

Pace

SYR faster ▶

74 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #46	25.0 #87	STAN
Yards / play	5.36 #100	6.17 #108	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #114	+0.15 #92	SYR
Success rate	40% #101	46% #116	Even

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: SYR offense

	SYR off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #40	20.5 #64	SYR
Yards / play	6.72 #35	5.44 #82	SYR
PPA / play	+0.36 #19	+0.11 #85	SYR
Success rate	48% #36	46% #118	SYR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 109 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	8.5	10.0	18.5
SYR allowed	6.5	5.0	11.5	3.5	10.0	13.5

SYR scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	3.5	15.5	19.0	8.5	7.0	15.5
STAN allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	5.0	7.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.