California @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

California

3-0 · Power #55

final

Final

Florida State

0-3 · Power #85

▲ winner

Closing spread

FSU -2.5

✓ FSU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 23 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 22–25 FSU

✓ FSU (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -2.5

CloseFSU -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFSU -2.5

no move

CloseFSU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FSU -2.5 · unchangedmodel FSU -8

model FSU -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 48% (122 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFSU -2.5

CloseFSU -2.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: FSU won 14–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 23 points stayed under 44.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 2 against an average line of 4.1; 60.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Close	OKST vs KSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	31–20	W	O47.5
Close	FSU vs SYR 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	33–30	L	O50.25
Close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Close	HOU vs RICE 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	33–7	W	U44
Close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Close	TLSA vs HOU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	10–45	L	O54
Close	ILL vs NU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	43–45	L	O46.75
Close	WISC vs MICH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-2	17–38	L	O43.5
Close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	38–10	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
FSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
FSU UUU	0-3	0%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
FSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+2.0 →+3.9▲ 1.9#52

FSU+14.6 →+7.2▼ 7.4#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CAL

Longer bar = better

FSU

#81

Offense

◀ CAL better

#121

#35

Defense

◀ CAL better

#95

+2.7 #3

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

−1.0 #119

69 plays #38

Pace

◀ CAL faster

57 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #82	24.0 #85	Even
Yards / play	5.25 #106	5.46 #82	FSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #86	+0.21 #109	CAL
Success rate	46% #50	43% #102	CAL

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: CAL defense

	FSU off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #127	12.3 #28	CAL
Yards / play	4.81 #121	4.44 #34	CAL
PPA / play	0.00 #113	−0.09 #29	CAL
Success rate	35% #124	36% #49	CAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.0 #55	4.7 #106	11.7 #92	8.0 #46	8.0 #40	16.0 #47
FSU allowed	3.3 #48	10.3 #109	13.7 #87	7.0 #88	3.3 #33	10.3 #55

FSU scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	2.7 #114	5.0 #104	7.7 #117	4.3 #100	3.3 #112	7.7 #114
CAL allowed	5.3 #82	2.3 #15	7.7 #32	0.0 #1	4.7 #55	4.7 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.