Georgia Tech @ Louisville: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Louisville · Conference game

Weather at kickoff89°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

3-1 · Power #36

final

Final

Louisville

2-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -8.5

✓ LOU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 25–34 LOU

✓ LOU (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -10.5

CloseLOU -8.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -10.5

2 → GT

CloseLOU -8.5

2 pts toward Georgia Tech

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -10.5 · closed LOU -8.5 · moved 2 toward GTmodel LOU -13.5

model LOU -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 44% (53 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 36% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -10.5

CloseLOU -8.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as an 8.5-point home favorite against GT, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LOU won 31–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 55.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 9.4; 53.8 points a game (usually 54). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs PUR 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9	10–20	L	U53
Close	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Loose	ALA vs TEX 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-7	24–34	L	O53.5
Loose	KSU vs MIZ 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & total	-7	40–12	W	U52.5
Loose	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & situation	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Loose	CIN vs HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar total	-10.5	35–20	W	O52.5
Loose	OU vs KSU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-13.5	34–41	L	O53
Loose	SYR vs ARMY 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form	-13	29–16	P	U50.5
Loose	ARK vs BYU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & situation	-8.25	31–38	L	O47.75
Loose	MSST vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & situation	-9	31–24	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT W–LW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
LOU WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: GT away, as underdog; LOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT U–UO	1-2	33%	3-1
LOU OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	7-3 70%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GT 0–1 LOU LOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 1 2023	Louisville 39 @ Georgia Tech 34	LOU -9.5	GT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT+2.9 →+5.5▲ 2.6#43

LOU+9.6 →+15.4▲ 5.8#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

LOU

#20

Offense

LOU better ▶

#73

Defense

LOU better ▶

#16

+0.3 #66

Turnovers

LOU better ▶

+1.5 #15

62 plays #107

Pace

LOU faster ▶

67 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Even matchup

	GT off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #32	7.0 #10	LOU
Yards / play	7.26 #21	3.36 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #13	−0.06 #35	GT
Success rate	54% #13	31% #17	Even

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	55.5 #3	17.8 #51	LOU
Yards / play	8.88 #1	5.16 #67	LOU
PPA / play	+0.55 #5	+0.10 #82	LOU
Success rate	61% #3	42% #92	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

GT scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	9.5 #28	10.5 #43	20.0 #35	7.0 #53	9.5 #23	16.5 #39
LOU allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

LOU scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	12.0	21.0	33.0	14.0	8.5	22.5
GT allowed	3.8 #53	5.8 #54	9.5 #49	3.0 #28	5.3 #65	8.3 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.