Louisville @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

3-0 · Power #14

final

Final

Notre Dame

3-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -6.5

✓ ND W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 21–27 ND

✓ ND (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -6.5

CloseND -6.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -6.5

no move

CloseND -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -6.5 · unchangedmodel ND -6.5 matches the line

model ND -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 55% (87 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -6.5

CloseND -6.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 6.5-point home favorite against LOU, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ND won 31–24; the favorite covered, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 45.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.3 against an average line of 6.5; 50.9 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	CLEM vs NCST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	30–20	W	O45.75
Close	TA&M vs MIA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	17–9	W	U45.5
Close	NEB vs ILL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	24–31	L	O42
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	ALA vs TENN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	34–20	W	O47.5
Close	MICH vs OSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-3	30–24	W	O47
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-9	27–10	W	U51
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-4	24–14	W	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WWW	3-0	100%	—	—
ND WLWL	2-2	50%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: LOU away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OOU	2-1	67%	3-0
ND UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 188 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ND	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LOU 1–0 ND LOU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LOU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Notre Dame 20 @ Louisville 33	ND -7	LOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.6 →+14.6▲ 5.0#12

ND+18.9 →+18.2▼ 0.7#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LOU

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ LOU better

#49

#24

Defense

Even

#18

+1.3 #10

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

+0.5 #49

60 plays #121

Pace

ND faster ▶

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Even matchup

	LOU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	47.3 #12	9.8 #9	Even
Yards / play	8.42 #4	4.17 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.50 #6	−0.16 #6	Even
Success rate	57% #5	36% #41	LOU

When ND has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	ND off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #49	11.0 #12	LOU
Yards / play	6.36 #47	4.31 #19	LOU
PPA / play	+0.25 #37	0.00 #38	Even
Success rate	44% #64	35% #27	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	10.3 #22	17.3 #5	27.7 #6	11.7 #9	8.0 #44	19.7 #19
ND allowed	3.3 #39	2.3 #12	5.5 #13	1.8 #11	2.5 #18	4.3 #11

ND scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	6.0 #72	11.3 #37	17.3 #52	7.8 #50	7.8 #50	15.5 #49
LOU allowed	2.3 #24	7.0 #63	9.3 #49	1.0 #6	0.7 #2	1.7 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.