Oklahoma @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F9 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

3-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

2-2 · Power #33

final

Closing spread

AUB -1.5

✓ OU W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 23–23 AUB

✓ OU (50%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -3

CloseAUB -1.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -3

4.5 → AUB

CloseAUB -1.5

4.5 pts toward Auburn

Total

Open47.5

▼ 4

Close43.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -3 · closed AUB -1.5 · moved 4.5 toward AUBmodel OU -6

model OU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 47%, covered 45% (74 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -3

CloseAUB -1.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 1.5-point home favorite against OU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 27–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.2; 47.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75
Close	MIZ vs UK 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	17–21	L	U40
Close	UVA vs LOU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	17–34	L	O47.5
Close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Close	ARIZ vs UTAH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	42–18	W	O45.5
Close	ORST vs UTAH 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–7	W	U44.5
Close	VT vs ND 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-1	29–32	L	O47
Close	SDSU vs NEV 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	23–21	L	U45
Close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Loose	MSST vs TA&M 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4	42–24	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WLWL	2-2	50%	—	0-1
AUB WLWL	2-2	50%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: OU away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1
AUB OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 148 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
AUB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+17.8 →+12.9▼ 4.9#16

AUB+7.1 →+5.0▼ 2.1#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

AUB

#114

Offense

AUB better ▶

#35

#19

Defense

◀ OU better

#43

+1.8 #3

Turnovers

◀ OU better

−2.5 #136

67 plays #57

Pace

◀ OU faster

58 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	OU off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #78	16.8 #33	AUB
Yards / play	4.45 #129	4.62 #32	AUB
PPA / play	−0.03 #121	+0.03 #52	AUB
Success rate	33% #129	38% #55	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #33	14.8 #25	Even
Yards / play	8.03 #6	4.31 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #80	−0.08 #19	OU
Success rate	50% #19	32% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OU scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	8.5 #38	9.5 #60	18.0 #45	1.5 #129	9.5 #23	11.0 #95
AUB allowed	4.3 #66	5.0 #35	9.3 #48	1.8 #11	5.8 #71	7.5 #29

AUB scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	12.3 #11	6.8 #93	19.0 #39	8.8 #27	8.8 #36	17.5 #32
OU allowed	3.3 #39	4.5 #34	7.8 #31	4.8 #54	2.3 #15	7.0 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.