Auburn @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

2-3 · Power #33

final

Final

Georgia

3-1 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -21.5

✓ AUB W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 14–35 UGA

✓ UGA (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -27

CloseUGA -21.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -27

5.5 → AUB

CloseUGA -21.5

5.5 pts toward Auburn

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -27 · closed UGA -21.5 · moved 5.5 toward AUBmodel UGA -23

model UGA -23

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–22.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 46% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -27

CloseUGA -21.5

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 21.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 31–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 24.1 against an average line of 21.4; 59.1 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5
Loose	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-22	49–27	P	O51
Loose	TENN vs MIZ 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19	66–24	W	O57.5
Loose	MIZ vs VAN 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-18	30–27	L	O52
Loose	CLEM vs MIA 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-19	40–10	W	O47.5
Loose	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Loose	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar total	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5
Loose	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-24	39–17	L	O52.5
Loose	CLEM vs GT 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-27.5	14–8	L	U52.5
Loose	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLWLL	2-3	40%	—	—
UGA WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-3

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB OUOUO	3-2	60%	2-3
UGA UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 53% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UGA	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AUB 53–64 UGA (6 tied) UGA leads · 123 games since 1902 · AUB has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Georgia 27 @ Auburn 20	UGA -14	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+7.1 →+6.3▼ 0.8#40

UGA+24.2 →+24.5▲ 0.3#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

AUB

Longer bar = better

UGA

#40

Offense

Even

#42

Defense

Even

#46

−2.2 #137

Turnovers

UGA better ▶

0.0 #77

61 plays #120

Pace

UGA faster ▶

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Even matchup

	AUB off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #44	14.8 #18	UGA
Yards / play	7.64 #8	4.90 #41	AUB
PPA / play	+0.11 #82	+0.05 #59	UGA
Success rate	49% #26	40% #64	AUB

When UGA has the ball

Even matchup

	UGA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #54	18.8 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.88 #28	4.84 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #30	+0.05 #55	UGA
Success rate	45% #57	37% #35	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	9.8 #19	8.2 #68	18.0 #42	7.0 #63	8.4 #41	15.4 #46
UGA allowed	6.0 #85	3.0 #14	9.0 #40	2.3 #14	3.5 #31	5.8 #17

UGA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	3.5 #108	6.5 #96	10.0 #110	11.5 #8	10.8 #14	22.3 #7
AUB allowed	4.8 #66	4.0 #22	8.8 #35	2.0 #12	8.0 #105	10.0 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.