Iowa @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

3-1 · Power #30

final

Final

Ohio State

4-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -17.5

✓ OSU W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 14–33 OSU

✓ OSU (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -23.5

CloseOSU -17.5

Total42.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -23.5

6 → IOWA

CloseOSU -17.5

6 pts toward Iowa

Total

Open42.5

▲ 3

Close45.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -23.5 · closed OSU -17.5 · moved 6 toward IOWAmodel OSU -22

model OSU -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 51% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -23.5

CloseOSU -17.5

Total42.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like OSU as a 17.5-point home favorite against IOWA, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 35–7; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 42 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 22.3 against an average line of 16.9; 45.3 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UGA vs ARK 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-16.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Loose	MISS vs UK 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-15	17–20	L	U51.5
Loose	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Loose	UGA vs UK 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-21.5	30–13	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA –LLW	1-2	33%	1-0	—
OSU LWLW	2-2	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: IOWA away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA –OOO	3-0	100%	3-1
OSU OOOU	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	7-3 70%	1-6 14%	3-4 43%
OSU	8-2 80%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+2.5 →+8.4▲ 5.9#29

OSU+21.3 →+25.4▲ 4.1#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

IOWA

Longer bar = better

OSU

#63

Offense

OSU better ▶

#23

Defense

Even

#15

+1.3 #13

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #20

68 plays #55

Pace

Even

67 plays #62

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	IOWA off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #55	6.8 #1	OSU
Yards / play	5.87 #73	3.39 #2	OSU
PPA / play	+0.14 #77	−0.13 #7	OSU
Success rate	46% #46	38% #49	Even

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	48.8 #4	13.8 #15	Even
Yards / play	7.98 #3	4.72 #28	OSU
PPA / play	+0.59 #1	−0.05 #18	Even
Success rate	56% #5	36% #29	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	4.3 #98	4.8 #119	9.0 #114	12.5 #6	10.5 #15	23.0 #4
OSU allowed	2.5 #20	3.5 #18	6.0 #11	0.8 #4	0.0 #1	0.8 #1

OSU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	9.5 #24	16.5 #2	26.0 #7	15.8 #1	7.0 #59	22.8 #6
IOWA allowed	0.0 #1	7.0 #67	7.0 #14	5.3 #61	1.5 #4	6.8 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.