Rutgers @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff93°F18 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Rutgers

4-0 · Power #51

final

Final

Nebraska

4-1 · Power #41

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -5.5

✓ NEB W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 21 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 17–22 NEB

✓ NEB (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -6.5

CloseNEB -5.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -6.5

1 → RUTG

CloseNEB -5.5

1 pt toward Rutgers

Total

Open43.5

▼ 3

Close40.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -6.5 · closed NEB -5.5 · moved 1 toward RUTGmodel NEB -3.5

model NEB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 52% (69 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -6.5

CloseNEB -5.5

Total43.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 5.5-point home favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 14–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 21 points stayed under 40.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 4.6; 44.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Very close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–20	L	U39
Very close	IOWA vs PSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	23–20	W	O41
Very close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	24–31	L	O44
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	NEB vs ILL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-9	24–31	L	O42
Close	PITT vs SYR 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	19–9	W	U47.5
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–14	W	U47
Close	UK vs FLA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	33–14	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RUTG LWWW	3-1	75%	1-0	1-0
NEB ––WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: RUTG away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG UOOU	2-2	50%	4-0
NEB ––UOU	1-2	33%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 36.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	6-4 60%	5-3-1 63%	6-3 67%
NEB	5-5 50%	3-3-1 50%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+2.4 →+6.8▲ 4.4#37

NEB+2.3 →+6.4▲ 4.1#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

RUTG

Longer bar = better

NEB

#42

Offense

Even

#41

#64

Defense

NEB better ▶

#33

+0.8 #39

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+1.0 #19

68 plays #56

Pace

◀ RUTG faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Even matchup

	RUTG off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #37	12.2 #9	NEB
Yards / play	6.32 #46	4.50 #22	NEB
PPA / play	+0.21 #46	+0.03 #50	Even
Success rate	47% #37	38% #50	Even

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #64	16.3 #29	RUTG
Yards / play	6.28 #48	5.87 #97	NEB
PPA / play	+0.27 #26	+0.03 #51	NEB
Success rate	49% #25	41% #79	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	7.0 #55	10.0 #51	17.0 #50	8.8 #30	9.3 #30	18.0 #26
NEB allowed	3.4 #34	0.6 #1	4.0 #4	2.6 #14	4.2 #39	6.8 #20

NEB scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	7.6 #45	11.6 #30	19.2 #30	4.0 #112	7.6 #51	11.6 #94
RUTG allowed	0.8 #4	4.3 #26	5.0 #10	3.5 #31	7.8 #101	11.3 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.