Nebraska @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F13 mphgusts 26Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Nebraska

3-1 · Power #41

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

1-2 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

NEB -10.5

✓ NEB W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 28–19 PUR

✓ NEB (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -9.5

CloseNEB -10.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -9.5

1 → NEB

CloseNEB -10.5

1 pt toward Nebraska

Total

Open49.5

▼ 3

Close46.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -9.5 · closed NEB -10.5 · moved 1 toward NEBmodel NEB -6

model NEB -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 55% (46 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (39 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -9.5

CloseNEB -10.5

Total49.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 10.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 28–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.3 against an average line of 10.1; 46.5 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA @ UNM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread	-11.5	38–10	W	O45.5
Close	SJSU @ FRES 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7	10–17	L	U47
Close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	24–8	W	U47
Close	SDSU @ SJSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.75	19–13	L	U41
Close	APP @ GAST 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-10	45–16	W	O54.5
Close	MINN @ IU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	35–14	W	O43.25
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Close	SYR @ BC 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	32–23	L	O47
Close	MINN @ NU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	41–14	W	O43.5
Close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-13.5	45–28	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB ––WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
PUR WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: NEB away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB ––UO	1-1	50%	3-1
PUR UOO	2-1	67%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	2-4-1 33%	4-3 57%
PUR	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEB 1–0 PUR NEB leads · 1 game since 2023 · NEB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Purdue 14 @ Nebraska 31	PUR -1.5	NEB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+2.3 →+4.2▲ 1.9#50

PUR+1.0 →−4.3▼ 5.3#85

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NEB

Longer bar = better

PUR

#48

Offense

◀ NEB better

#76

#44

Defense

◀ NEB better

#108

+1.0 #24

Turnovers

◀ NEB better

−1.7 #132

66 plays #70

Pace

◀ NEB faster

54 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #60	34.7 #120	NEB
Yards / play	6.09 #64	5.94 #100	NEB
PPA / play	+0.26 #35	+0.24 #117	NEB
Success rate	49% #31	42% #94	NEB

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	PUR off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #95	12.8 #17	NEB
Yards / play	6.57 #36	4.61 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #102	+0.07 #65	NEB
Success rate	43% #69	39% #62	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	9.5 #29	14.5 #12	24.0 #17	3.3 #119	4.3 #107	7.5 #120
PUR allowed	7.0 #100	12.7 #126	19.7 #120	5.7 #70	9.3 #121	15.0 #108

PUR scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	2.3 #122	7.0 #90	9.3 #110	7.0 #62	9.3 #27	16.3 #45
NEB allowed	4.3 #64	0.8 #1	5.0 #11	2.5 #21	3.5 #35	6.0 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.