Oregon @ UCLA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at UCLA · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Oregon

3-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

UCLA

1-2 · Power #48

final

Closing spread

ORE -23.5

✓ UCLA W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 37–15 UCLA

✓ ORE (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -24

CloseORE -23.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -24

0.5 → UCLA

CloseORE -23.5

0.5 pts toward UCLA

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -24 · closed ORE -23.5 · moved 0.5 toward UCLAmodel ORE -18.5

model ORE -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -24

CloseORE -23.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 23.5-point road favorite at UCLA, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 34–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.7 against an average line of 22.3; 54.7 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	FSU @ PITT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-21.5	24–7	L	U50
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Close	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Loose	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Loose	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-21	41–16	W	O53
Loose	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-26	56–23	W	O50
Loose	OSU @ IU 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & rest	-21	54–7	W	O59
Loose	FLA @ SC 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings	-20.5	17–40	L	O52
Loose	OU @ BYU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-24.5	31–24	L	U58.5
Loose	BYU @ GASO 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-20	34–17	L	U57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE –L–	0-1	0%	—	0-1
UCLA LL–	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; UCLA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE –O–	1-0	100%	3-0
UCLA UO–	1-1	50%	1-2

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	5-3 63%	3-4-1 43%
UCLA	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ORE 33–41 UCLA UCLA leads · 74 games since 1928 · UCLA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+22.4 →+19.0▼ 3.4#9

UCLA+7.7 →−0.1▼ 7.8#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ORE

Longer bar = better

UCLA

#25

Offense

◀ ORE better

#120

#43

Defense

◀ ORE better

#106

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

−1.0 #122

68 plays #56

Pace

◀ ORE faster

55 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #29	29.7 #104	ORE
Yards / play	6.82 #30	5.70 #89	ORE
PPA / play	+0.26 #31	+0.17 #101	ORE
Success rate	52% #11	50% #128	ORE

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	UCLA off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	15.3 #127	20.7 #50	ORE
Yards / play	5.28 #104	4.79 #34	ORE
PPA / play	−0.04 #122	+0.09 #73	ORE
Success rate	34% #126	34% #13	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	7.0 #53	9.7 #54	16.7 #57	7.7 #50	12.3 #9	20.0 #16
UCLA allowed	9.3 #123	6.7 #61	16.0 #103	5.7 #71	8.0 #105	13.7 #92

UCLA scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	3.3 #116	4.7 #119	8.0 #118	4.3 #100	3.0 #128	7.3 #125
ORE allowed	3.3 #36	8.0 #83	11.3 #66	2.3 #15	7.0 #87	9.3 #40

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.