NCAAF 1st half2024 Week 5: 52 of 53 games final. Favorites went 24-28 against the first-half spread, and halftime totals went 27 over, 25 under.How 1st-half lines work ⓘ
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Thursday, Sep 26
1
Friday, Sep 27
21H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
MIA -10.5
✓ VT W ATS
1H total
29
▲ Over 41
Projected
8–19
✗ MIA did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
RUTG -1
✓ RUTG W ATS
1H total
23
▼ Under 17
Projected
13–12
✗ WASH did not lead
Saturday, Sep 28
50
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
KSU -3
✓ KSU W ATS
1H total
30.5
▲ Over 34
Projected
12–17
✓ KSU led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
BC -4.5
✓ WKU W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 24
Projected
10–19
✗ BC did not lead
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
NCSU -4.5
✓ NIU W ATS
1H total
24
▲ Over 31
Projected
11–15
✓ NCSU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
TULN -3
✓ TULN W ATS
1H total
31.5
▲ Over 38
Projected
12–18
✓ TULN led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
JMU -12
✓ JMU W ATS
1H total
28.5
▲ Over 36
Projected
6–21
✓ JMU led
1H finalNeutral · est. line
1H spread
TXST -6
✓ TXST W ATS
1H total
28.5
▲ Over 53
Projected
16–12
✓ TXST led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
ND -4
✓ ND W ATS
1H total
23.5
▲ Over 38
Projected
10–14
✓ ND led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
M-OH -9
✓ MASS W ATS
1H total
22.5
▼ Under 20
Projected
6–16
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
WAKE -1.5
✓ UL W ATS
1H total
30.5
▲ Over 38
Projected
15–15
✗ WAKE did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UNLV -1.5
✓ UNLV W ATS
1H total
25.5
▼ Under 21
Projected
12–16
✓ UNLV led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
CMU -1.5
✓ SDSU W ATS
1H total
25
▲ Over 34
Projected
13–13
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
GAST -2
✓ GASO W ATS
1H total
29.5
▲ Over 31
Projected
13–16
✗ GAST did not lead
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
MRSH -2
✓ MRSH W ATS
1H total
27.5
▼ Under 20
Projected
13–18
✓ MRSH led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
EMU -8
✓ KENT W ATS
1H total
23
▲ Over 35
Projected
18–10
✓ EMU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UNC -1
✓ UNC W ATS
1H total
28.5
▼ Under 17
Projected
13–14
✗ DUKE did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
ECU -1
✓ UTSA W ATS
1H total
27.5
▼ Under 23
Projected
12–13
✗ ECU did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
TEX -22.5
✓ MSST W ATS
1H total
30.5
▼ Under 20
Projected
5–26
✓ TEX led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
BGSU -7
✓ ODU W ATS
1H total
27
▲ Over 31
Projected
10–16
✗ BGSU did not lead
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
LT -1
✓ FIU W ATS
1H total
25.5
▼ Under 7
Projected
12–12
✓ FIU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
ISU -9.5
✓ HOU W ATS
1H total
22
▼ Under 3
Projected
14–7
✓ ISU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
UNT -4.5
✓ UNT W ATS
1H total
34
▼ Under 27
Projected
14–20
✓ UNT led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
OSU -14
✓ OSU W ATS
1H total
24.5
▲ Over 31
Projected
19–5
✓ OSU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
PSU -11.5
✓ ILL W ATS
1H total
25
▼ Under 14
Projected
6–19
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
MEM -16
✓ MTSU W ATS
1H total
31.5
▼ Under 14
Projected
8–24
✓ MEM led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
LSU -12
✓ LSU W ATS
1H total
33.5
▲ Over 38
Projected
12–22
✓ LSU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
SMU -3
✓ SMU W ATS
1H total
24
▼ Under 23
Projected
10–15
✓ SMU led
1H finalConf · est. line
1H spread
TTU -2
✓ CIN W ATS
1H total
31
▲ Over 48
Projected
13–17
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
UNM -5
✓ UNM W ATS
1H total
28
▲ Over 31
Projected
15–14
✓ UNM led
1H finalNon-conf · est. line
1H spread
BOIS -4
✓ BOIS W ATS
1H total
34
▼ Under 27
Projected
16–19
✓ BOIS led
Loading…
| Status | Matchup | 1H spread | Move | 1H total | Model | Trend | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
1H ATS: the team's 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line. Away team listed first. Spread edge = the model's 1st-half line minus the 1H spread (Total edge: the model's 1H total minus the 1H total), in points; a lean starts at 2 pts (3 on the total) and is context only. Projections use only games played before that week. Trends use each team's 1st halves earlier this season; dot = backtest status ( proven edge, above break-even but not proven, no edge). est. lines are estimated from the full-game line.
1H ATS leans (backtest)
1117-1157 (49.1%)
No edge 2016–26 · break-even 52.4%
1H O/U leans (backtest)
313-299 (51.1%)
No edge 3+ pt edges
Halftime leader picked
69.7%
7,953 games, walk-forward
This week
24-28 fav 1H ATS
O/U 27-25 · leans 12-13 ATS, 3-2 O/U
2024 team 1st-half records
Against the 1st-half line (real or estimated), halftime over/under and halftime leads
| Team | GP | 1H ATS | Cover % | 1H O-U | Led-trailed | 1H PF | 1H PA | 1H margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 North Dakota State |
1 | 1-0 | 100% | 1-0 | 1-0 | 20.0 | 17.0 | +3.0 |
 Missouri State |
1 | 1-0 | 100% | 0-1 | 0-0-1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
 Old Dominion |
12 | 9-2-1 | 81.8% | 6-6 | 7-4-1 | 14.8 | 12.3 | +2.5 |
 Minnesota |
13 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 5-7-1 | 9-3-1 | 14.5 | 8.8 | +5.6 |
 Marshall |
13 | 10-3 | 76.9% | 4-9 | 9-3-1 | 15.8 | 9.4 | +6.5 |
 Texas |
16 | 12-4 | 75% | 7-9 | 14-2 | 19.4 | 5.8 | +13.7 |
 TCU |
13 | 9-3 | 75% | 4-8 | 9-4 | 18.7 | 12.0 | +6.7 |
 UTSA |
13 | 9-3 | 75% | 7-5 | 8-3-2 | 19.0 | 13.8 | +5.2 |
 Georgia Tech |
13 | 8-3 | 72.7% | 4-8 | 7-5-1 | 14.7 | 10.4 | +4.3 |
 Arkansas |
13 | 8-3-1 | 72.7% | 5-7 | 7-3-3 | 15.9 | 10.6 | +5.3 |
 Arizona State |
14 | 10-4 | 71.4% | 8-5-1 | 9-3-2 | 18.9 | 10.6 | +8.3 |
 Nebraska |
13 | 7-3-1 | 70% | 4-7 | 8-3-2 | 14.7 | 7.8 | +6.9 |
 South Carolina |
13 | 9-4 | 69.2% | 7-5-1 | 8-3-2 | 15.0 | 9.7 | +5.3 |
 Oregon |
14 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 9-3 | 11-3 | 21.4 | 12.1 | +9.2 |
 San José State |
13 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 1-11 | 5-4-4 | 14.2 | 13.2 | +1.1 |
 Navy |
13 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 7-6 | 8-5 | 16.5 | 10.2 | +6.3 |
 Florida |
13 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 3-9 | 8-3-2 | 12.5 | 10.7 | +1.8 |
 Indiana |
13 | 8-4-1 | 66.7% | 7-6 | 11-2 | 20.5 | 8.2 | +12.4 |
 UL Monroe |
12 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 6-6 | 5-5-2 | 9.3 | 14.3 | -4.9 |
 Akron |
12 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 9-3 | 4-8 | 12.4 | 15.8 | -3.3 |
 Rice |
12 | 8-4 | 66.7% | 6-6 | 5-7 | 12.1 | 12.5 | -0.4 |
 Ohio |
14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 6-8 | 10-4 | 14.6 | 8.4 | +6.3 |
 Miami (OH) |
14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 5-9 | 8-4-2 | 11.4 | 8.8 | +2.6 |
 Western Kentucky |
14 | 9-5 | 64.3% | 6-8 | 8-5-1 | 14.1 | 12.4 | +1.8 |
 BYU |
13 | 7-4 | 63.6% | 5-6 | 8-4-1 | 15.8 | 10.9 | +4.8 |
 Hawai'i |
12 | 7-4 | 63.6% | 2-9 | 5-7 | 10.6 | 11.7 | -1.1 |
 UAB |
12 | 7-4 | 63.6% | 5-6 | 6-5-1 | 15.8 | 15.8 | -0.1 |
 Massachusetts |
12 | 7-4-1 | 63.6% | 5-7 | 4-6-2 | 13.0 | 15.5 | -2.5 |
 Northwestern |
12 | 7-4 | 63.6% | 7-4 | 4-7-1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | -3.6 |
 San Diego State |
12 | 7-4 | 63.6% | 6-5 | 3-9 | 10.8 | 14.9 | -4.2 |
 Notre Dame |
16 | 10-6 | 62.5% | 9-7 | 11-3-2 | 18.1 | 7.4 | +10.8 |
 Army |
14 | 8-5-1 | 61.5% | 8-6 | 12-2 | 17.0 | 6.6 | +10.4 |
 Boise State |
14 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 4-9 | 10-1-3 | 21.2 | 10.9 | +10.3 |
 Rutgers |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 6-5-2 | 9-4 | 14.2 | 11.5 | +2.8 |
 Toledo |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 7-6 | 9-4 | 15.0 | 8.6 | +6.4 |
 Ole Miss |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 4-8-1 | 10-2-1 | 22.6 | 8.3 | +14.3 |
 USC |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 4-9 | 5-3-5 | 13.8 | 10.6 | +3.2 |
 Boston College |
13 | 8-5 | 61.5% | 7-6 | 6-6-1 | 14.7 | 12.2 | +2.5 |
 Arkansas State |
13 | 6-4-1 | 60% | 5-6 | 6-6-1 | 11.8 | 15.4 | -3.5 |
 Mississippi State |
12 | 6-4-1 | 60% | 7-3-1 | 2-10 | 12.8 | 21.5 | -8.8 |
 Fresno State |
13 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 6-6 | 9-4 | 16.4 | 10.2 | +6.2 |
 Texas Tech |
13 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 7-5 | 8-4-1 | 21.7 | 14.9 | +6.8 |
 Kansas |
12 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 7-4-1 | 5-5-2 | 17.9 | 13.6 | +4.3 |
 Wisconsin |
12 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 3-9 | 8-4 | 11.1 | 9.3 | +1.8 |
 Florida International |
12 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 8-4 | 6-5-1 | 14.4 | 14.0 | +0.4 |
 Auburn |
12 | 7-5 | 58.3% | 3-9 | 5-4-3 | 13.7 | 8.3 | +5.4 |
 Tulane |
14 | 8-6 | 57.1% | 8-6 | 10-4 | 17.3 | 9.1 | +8.1 |
 SMU |
14 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 6-6 | 11-3 | 20.1 | 11.2 | +8.9 |
 Washington State |
13 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 5-6 | 10-3 | 21.2 | 13.8 | +7.5 |
 North Texas |
13 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 7-5 | 5-8 | 16.9 | 20.6 | -3.7 |
 East Carolina |
13 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 6-7 | 7-5-1 | 14.5 | 13.2 | +1.3 |
 Wake Forest |
12 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 6-4-1 | 6-6 | 14.1 | 16.7 | -2.6 |
 Central Michigan |
12 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 7-5 | 3-9 | 12.7 | 16.6 | -3.9 |
 Michigan State |
12 | 6-5-1 | 54.5% | 6-6 | 6-6 | 12.4 | 12.1 | +0.3 |
 Cincinnati |
12 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 5-6 | 6-4-2 | 14.8 | 13.2 | +1.7 |
 Kennesaw State |
12 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 5-6 | 0-9-3 | 7.8 | 15.7 | -7.9 |
 Ball State |
12 | 6-5 | 54.5% | 7-4 | 3-7-2 | 12.8 | 18.5 | -5.8 |
 Clemson |
14 | 7-6-1 | 53.8% | 7-7 | 9-4-1 | 20.4 | 9.8 | +10.6 |
 UNLV |
14 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 7-5-1 | 9-5 | 19.1 | 11.3 | +7.9 |
 Buffalo |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 5-8 | 7-6 | 12.8 | 11.6 | +1.2 |
 Coastal Carolina |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 8-5 | 6-7 | 14.0 | 16.6 | -2.6 |
 Illinois |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 7-6 | 8-4-1 | 13.5 | 10.5 | +2.9 |
 Oklahoma |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 5-8 | 8-5 | 14.2 | 11.7 | +2.5 |
 Vanderbilt |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 4-9 | 7-5-1 | 13.3 | 10.5 | +2.8 |
 Virginia Tech |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 4-7-2 | 9-4 | 14.0 | 9.3 | +4.7 |
 Tennessee |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 5-8 | 7-5-1 | 19.6 | 7.0 | +12.6 |
 Syracuse |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 9-4 | 7-5-1 | 16.7 | 15.4 | +1.3 |
 Georgia Southern |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 6-7 | 8-5 | 13.7 | 13.5 | +0.2 |
 Alabama |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 6-7 | 10-3 | 18.0 | 7.4 | +10.6 |
 Baylor |
13 | 7-6 | 53.8% | 7-5-1 | 7-5-1 | 17.9 | 16.9 | +1.0 |
 Ohio State |
16 | 8-8 | 50% | 8-8 | 14-1-1 | 19.8 | 7.4 | +12.4 |
 Jacksonville State |
14 | 7-7 | 50% | 9-5 | 8-4-2 | 18.1 | 16.1 | +2.1 |
 Colorado |
13 | 6-6 | 50% | 7-5 | 6-7 | 15.4 | 14.5 | +0.8 |
 Western Michigan |
13 | 6-6-1 | 50% | 8-5 | 5-7-1 | 15.8 | 15.8 | +0.1 |
 Iowa |
13 | 6-6 | 50% | 5-7 | 7-6 | 9.7 | 8.3 | +1.4 |
 Michigan |
13 | 5-5-1 | 50% | 6-5 | 7-5-1 | 11.6 | 10.8 | +0.8 |
 LSU |
13 | 6-6 | 50% | 5-7 | 7-3-3 | 18.1 | 13.2 | +4.9 |
 New Mexico |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 7-5 | 4-7-1 | 17.5 | 20.7 | -3.2 |
 Florida Atlantic |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 6-6 | 6-5-1 | 14.6 | 14.0 | +0.6 |
 Air Force |
12 | 6-6 | 50% | 5-7 | 5-7 | 9.9 | 11.4 | -1.5 |
 Houston |
12 | 5-5 | 50% | 4-6 | 2-9-1 | 8.4 | 13.3 | -4.9 |
 Utah State |
12 | 5-5-1 | 50% | 4-7 | 6-6 | 14.3 | 20.0 | -5.8 |
 Sacramento State |
2 | 1-1 | 50% | 1-1 | 1-1 | 13.5 | 19.5 | -6.0 |
 North Carolina |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 6-6-1 | 6-6-1 | 14.0 | 14.4 | -0.4 |
 Colorado State |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 2-11 | 6-6-1 | 11.8 | 10.9 | +0.8 |
 Northern Illinois |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 6-7 | 6-7 | 13.8 | 11.7 | +2.1 |
 California |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 5-8 | 7-6 | 13.2 | 12.1 | +1.1 |
 Kansas State |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 7-6 | 8-5 | 14.5 | 13.5 | +1.0 |
 Memphis |
13 | 6-7 | 46.2% | 5-8 | 10-1-2 | 19.2 | 11.1 | +8.1 |
 Duke |
13 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% | 5-7-1 | 7-6 | 12.6 | 11.6 | +1.0 |
 South Alabama |
13 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% | 6-6 | 8-5 | 18.5 | 13.2 | +5.4 |
 South Florida |
13 | 5-6 | 45.5% | 4-7 | 5-8 | 14.5 | 15.6 | -1.2 |
 Louisiana Tech |
13 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% | 3-9 | 7-5-1 | 11.3 | 10.5 | +0.8 |
 Texas State |
13 | 5-6-1 | 45.5% | 8-4 | 8-4-1 | 21.3 | 13.5 | +7.8 |
 UTEP |
12 | 5-6 | 45.5% | 3-8 | 3-7-2 | 8.8 | 16.5 | -7.7 |
 Oregon State |
12 | 5-6 | 45.5% | 4-7 | 7-4-1 | 11.8 | 14.3 | -2.5 |
 UCLA |
12 | 5-6 | 45.5% | 4-7 | 4-7-1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | -2.8 |
 Charlotte |
12 | 4-5-1 | 44.4% | 5-5 | 2-9-1 | 10.0 | 15.9 | -5.9 |
 Penn State |
16 | 6-8-1 | 42.9% | 7-8 | 9-6-1 | 17.9 | 9.6 | +8.3 |
 Pittsburgh |
13 | 5-7-1 | 41.7% | 7-6 | 5-6-2 | 15.6 | 15.8 | -0.2 |
 Sam Houston |
13 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 7-5 | 6-5-2 | 12.8 | 10.2 | +2.7 |
 James Madison |
13 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 7-5 | 7-6 | 18.5 | 12.2 | +6.3 |
 Utah |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 5-7 | 6-5-1 | 13.3 | 9.6 | +3.8 |
 Stanford |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 5-7 | 4-8 | 11.1 | 17.5 | -6.4 |
 Kentucky |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 2-10 | 6-5-1 | 11.2 | 10.2 | +1.0 |
 New Mexico State |
12 | 5-7 | 41.7% | 6-6 | 3-8-1 | 8.8 | 17.9 | -9.1 |
 Louisiana |
14 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 7-6 | 9-4-1 | 16.6 | 13.5 | +3.1 |
 Nevada |
13 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 5-8 | 3-8-2 | 10.8 | 15.2 | -4.4 |
 West Virginia |
13 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 7-6 | 6-6-1 | 16.8 | 16.5 | +0.3 |
 UConn |
13 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 5-6-2 | 6-7 | 15.3 | 12.2 | +3.1 |
 Louisville |
13 | 5-8 | 38.5% | 8-5 | 7-4-2 | 19.0 | 12.9 | +6.1 |
 Bowling Green |
13 | 4-7-1 | 36.4% | 5-7 | 9-4 | 15.5 | 11.8 | +3.7 |
 Southern Miss |
12 | 4-7 | 36.4% | 3-7-1 | 1-11 | 9.7 | 20.1 | -10.4 |
 Georgia State |
12 | 4-7 | 36.4% | 5-6 | 3-7-2 | 11.4 | 15.9 | -4.5 |
 Texas A&M |
13 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 5-6-1 | 6-3-4 | 15.5 | 9.4 | +6.1 |
 UCF |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 7-5 | 4-8 | 14.8 | 15.9 | -1.2 |
 Tulsa |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 7-5 | 3-8-1 | 10.4 | 24.9 | -14.5 |
 Oklahoma State |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 6-6 | 3-8-1 | 11.8 | 17.3 | -5.5 |
 Troy |
12 | 4-8 | 33.3% | 4-7-1 | 6-6 | 11.4 | 14.8 | -3.4 |
 Iowa State |
14 | 4-9-1 | 30.8% | 8-6 | 8-5-1 | 15.0 | 13.9 | +1.1 |
 Missouri |
13 | 4-9 | 30.8% | 5-7-1 | 5-6-2 | 13.2 | 10.8 | +2.3 |
 Washington |
13 | 3-7-1 | 30% | 6-5 | 6-6-1 | 12.9 | 13.8 | -0.9 |
 Eastern Michigan |
12 | 3-7-2 | 30% | 5-7 | 6-6 | 10.2 | 13.5 | -3.3 |
 Virginia |
12 | 3-7 | 30% | 3-5-2 | 3-8-1 | 10.3 | 15.3 | -5.1 |
 Maryland |
12 | 3-8 | 27.3% | 5-4-2 | 2-10 | 10.5 | 16.3 | -5.8 |
 Middle Tennessee |
12 | 3-8 | 27.3% | 5-6 | 2-9-1 | 8.8 | 19.5 | -10.7 |
 Wyoming |
12 | 3-8 | 27.3% | 6-5 | 0-10-2 | 9.9 | 18.8 | -8.8 |
 NC State |
13 | 3-10 | 23.1% | 4-9 | 3-9-1 | 10.8 | 16.0 | -5.2 |
 Kent State |
12 | 2-7-2 | 22.2% | 7-4 | 0-12 | 6.6 | 27.2 | -20.6 |
 Purdue |
12 | 2-8-2 | 20% | 5-7 | 1-10-1 | 4.4 | 19.7 | -15.3 |
 App State |
11 | 2-8 | 20% | 6-4 | 3-8 | 14.0 | 21.3 | -7.3 |
 Miami |
13 | 2-9-1 | 18.2% | 9-2-1 | 9-4 | 20.7 | 14.7 | +6.0 |
 Temple |
12 | 2-9-1 | 18.2% | 8-4 | 1-11 | 9.3 | 19.7 | -10.3 |
 Liberty |
12 | 2-10 | 16.7% | 3-9 | 5-5-2 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 |
 Arizona |
12 | 2-10 | 16.7% | 5-7 | 3-9 | 8.6 | 18.5 | -9.9 |
 Florida State |
12 | 1-11 | 8.3% | 3-9 | 2-9-1 | 6.8 | 13.9 | -7.1 |
 Georgia |
14 | 1-12-1 | 7.7% | 4-10 | 6-7-1 | 12.0 | 10.4 | +1.6 |
How it works
Halftime scores come from ESPN quarter scores (Q1 + Q2) for every game since 2015.
1st-half lines. ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime). A real line shows its book; an estimated one is marked “est.”
Projection. The full-game model's margin and total, scaled the same way. The blend was chosen by the lowest walk-forward error.
Spread edge and Total edge. The model’s 1st-half line (total) minus the market’s, in points. A lean starts when the projection beats the 1H line by 2–6 pts (ATS) or 3+ pts (O/U). Shown for context: neither has a proven edge.
Picks and prices. For a game with a posted 1st-half line, tap Pick on its tile to save a 1H spread or total pick (graded on the halftime score; they show in My picks). The game card’s Market tab lists every book’s 1st-half price.
NCAAF first-half betting FAQ
First-half lines, 1H ATS and halftime totals explained
What is a first-half spread in the NCAAF?
A first-half (1H) spread is a point spread graded on the score at halftime only. A team covers the 1st-half spread when its 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line is positive; the 2nd half and overtime don't count.
How are NCAAF first-half lines set here?
ESPN publishes no college 1st-half lines. Real ones come from The Odds API’s US books (DraftKings first) for games kicking off within about five days (the biggest matchups first, a capped number a day), pulled once, so a line shows the time it was fetched; every other game, and every past college game, is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.59, total × 0.52, rounded to the half point: the share of the margin and points college teams score before halftime).
How is the 1st-half projection made?
The full-game power-rating model's margin and total are scaled to the first half. Every past week is predicted only from games played before it.
Do the 1st-half leans beat the market?
Not so far. Over 2016–26, 1st-half ATS leans went 1117-1157 (49.1%) and over/under leans 313-299 (51.1%), below or near the 52.4% needed to break even at -110 odds, so they are shown as context only.
How often does the model pick the team leading at halftime?
69.7% of 7,953 NCAAF games in the 2016–26 walk-forward backtest.