Ball State @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 1:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at James Madison

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-2 · Power #126

final

Final

James Madison

3-0 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -20.5

✓ JMU W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 15–37 JMU

✓ JMU (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -19

CloseJMU -20.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -19

1.5 → JMU

CloseJMU -20.5

1.5 pts toward James Madison

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -19 · closed JMU -20.5 · moved 1.5 toward JMUmodel JMU -26

model JMU -26

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 48% (50 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (41 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -19

CloseJMU -20.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 20.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 63–7; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 22.2; 54.8 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTSA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	24–17	L	U55.5
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Very close	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5
Very close	ORST vs STAN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21.5	62–17	W	O52.5
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Close	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25
Close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	27–3	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL W–W	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
JMU –LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL O–O	2-0	100%	1-2
JMU –UO	1-1	50%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 228 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	4-6 40%	8-1 89%	3-5 38%
JMU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−11.2 →−16.9▼ 5.7#126

JMU+2.2 →+4.2▲ 2.0#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BALL

Longer bar = better

JMU

#108

Offense

JMU better ▶

#51

#131

Defense

JMU better ▶

#39

+0.3 #62

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+2.3 #1

70 plays #38

Pace

◀ BALL faster

63 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	BALL off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #97	21.0 #58	JMU
Yards / play	4.69 #122	5.50 #77	JMU
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	−0.13 #8	JMU
Success rate	41% #99	32% #13	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #25	44.3 #135	JMU
Yards / play	6.89 #25	8.87 #137	JMU
PPA / play	+0.16 #67	+0.38 #134	JMU
Success rate	42% #87	47% #118	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.3 #112	4.7 #116	8.0 #117	4.7 #99	12.7 #6	17.3 #32
JMU allowed	4.7 #72	5.7 #43	10.3 #60	6.7 #86	4.0 #44	10.7 #56

JMU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	9.3 #30	11.3 #37	20.7 #30	8.0 #44	9.0 #31	17.0 #34
BALL allowed	5.7 #89	14.7 #129	20.3 #123	5.7 #69	18.3 #134	24.0 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.