South Florida @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

South Florida

2-2 · Power #91

final

Final

Tulane

2-2 · Power #40

▲ winner

Closing spread

TULN -5.5

✓ TULN W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

USF 26–32 TULN

✓ TULN (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -6.5

CloseTULN -5.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTULN -6.5

1 → USF

CloseTULN -5.5

1 pt toward South Florida

Total

Open62.5

▼ 2

Close60.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TULN -6.5 · closed TULN -5.5 · moved 1 toward USFmodel TULN -9.5

model TULN -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 51% (57 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTULN -6.5

CloseTULN -5.5

Total62.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TULN as a 5.5-point home favorite against USF, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 45–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 60.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 6.3; 55.7 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	TOL vs KENT 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	52–31	W	O62.5
Very close	ECU vs HOU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	3–42	L	U66.5
Very close	UNLV vs CSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	25–23	L	U60
Very close	NCST vs UNC 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	34–30	L	O61.25
Very close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Very close	TULN vs MEM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	38–28	W	O55.5
Very close	UCF vs WVU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	28–41	L	O59
Very close	APP vs CCU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	24–27	L	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF –W–L	1-1	50%	1-0	1-1
TULN WWLW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: USF away, as underdog; TULN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF –U–O	1-1	50%	2-2
TULN UOOO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 45% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	6-4 60%	5-3 63%	4-4 50%
TULN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−4.4 →−2.6▲ 1.8#77

TULN+1.3 →+3.1▲ 1.8#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

USF

Longer bar = better

TULN

#90

Offense

TULN better ▶

#58

#96

Defense

TULN better ▶

#71

+1.5 #7

Turnovers

◀ USF better

+0.3 #72

77 plays #6

Pace

◀ USF faster

63 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #56	25.3 #78	USF
Yards / play	5.34 #102	5.50 #78	TULN
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	+0.03 #55	TULN
Success rate	39% #110	40% #73	TULN

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: TULN offense

	TULN off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #41	29.8 #104	TULN
Yards / play	6.31 #50	6.17 #109	TULN
PPA / play	+0.23 #45	+0.19 #105	TULN
Success rate	41% #94	39% #65	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USF scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	10.0 #25	10.0 #54	20.0 #34	9.5 #17	2.5 #127	12.0 #81
TULN allowed	4.3 #64	6.8 #65	11.0 #66	6.5 #85	7.8 #98	14.3 #101

TULN scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	3.5 #103	12.5 #31	16.0 #68	10.5 #13	8.3 #45	18.8 #23
USF allowed	8.8 #117	6.3 #55	15.0 #99	3.5 #34	11.3 #128	14.8 #106

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.