Middle Tennessee @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Memphis

Weather at kickoff69°F3 mphgusts 8Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

1-3 · Power #129

final

Final

Memphis

3-1 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -27.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 17–44 MEM

✓ MEM (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -24.5

CloseMEM -27.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -24.5

3 → MEM

CloseMEM -27.5

3 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open61.5

▼ 1

Close60.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -24.5 · closed MEM -27.5 · moved 3 toward MEMmodel MEM -27.5 matches the line

model MEM -27.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–29.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 54% (56 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -24.5

CloseMEM -27.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 27.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 24–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 60.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 26.1 against an average line of 27.8; 64.9 points a game (usually 56). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU vs USU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-26	38–26	L	O60
Close	WASH vs COLO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-30.5	54–7	W	O60.5
Close	TEX vs KU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-31	56–57	L	O61.5
Close	TOL vs AKR 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-28.5	49–14	W	O57.5
Close	CCU vs TXST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-24.5	35–21	L	U60
Close	UCF vs CONN 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-30	49–17	W	O55.75
Close	TEX vs RICE 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-26	58–0	W	O52
Close	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75
Close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	TENN vs VAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-27	48–24	L	O57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU –LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-3
MEM WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU –UOO	2-1	67%	1-3
MEM UUUO	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 46% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
MEM	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−7.5 →−18.1▼ 10.6#131

MEM+2.0 →+4.8▲ 2.8#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MTSU

Longer bar = better

MEM

#112

Offense

MEM better ▶

#46

#134

Defense

MEM better ▶

#79

−1.5 #131

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+1.3 #21

66 plays #75

Pace

MEM faster ▶

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	MTSU off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #121	21.3 #60	MEM
Yards / play	5.40 #99	5.46 #73	MEM
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	+0.12 #86	MEM
Success rate	37% #118	42% #95	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #38	42.8 #133	MEM
Yards / play	6.17 #58	7.39 #133	MEM
PPA / play	+0.25 #36	+0.43 #137	MEM
Success rate	46% #50	54% #134	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	4.3 #96	4.3 #121	8.5 #114	5.3 #88	4.5 #108	9.8 #110
MEM allowed	1.8 #11	7.8 #80	9.5 #45	4.0 #39	7.8 #101	11.8 #70

MEM scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	7.8 #44	12.8 #20	20.5 #31	8.3 #37	6.8 #70	15.0 #50
MTSU allowed	14.8 #132	8.3 #88	23.0 #131	11.0 #131	8.8 #116	19.8 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.