Memphis @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F10 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Memphis

4-1 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

South Florida

2-3 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

MEM -10.5

✓ MEM W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 35–25 USF

✓ MEM (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -6

CloseMEM -10.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -6

4.5 → MEM

CloseMEM -10.5

4.5 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open60.5

▼ 2

Close58.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -6 · closed MEM -10.5 · moved 4.5 toward MEMmodel MEM -6.5

model MEM -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 55% (58 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -6

CloseMEM -10.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 10.5-point road favorite at USF, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MEM won 21–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.4 against an average line of 10.6; 56.8 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WVU @ BAY 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-8.5	34–31	L	O54
Close	TA&M @ MIZ 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-11.5	35–14	W	U59.25
Close	AFA @ USU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-11.5	27–34	L	O53.75
Close	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation	-7.5	45–21	W	O62
Close	ISU @ TTU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-12.5	38–41	L	O55.5
Close	ARIZ @ STAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-13	21–20	L	U60
Close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Loose	ND @ UVA 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar total	-8	28–3	W	U62.25
Loose	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-12	45–31	W	O55
Loose	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & situation	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
USF –W–LL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; USF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM UUUOU	1-4	20%	4-1
USF –U–OU	1-2	33%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 42 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%
USF	5-5 50%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MEM 10–4 USF MEM leads · 14 games since 2001 · MEM has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	South Florida 50 @ Memphis 59	MEM -13.5	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+2.0 →+3.5▲ 1.5#57

USF−4.4 →−5.0▼ 0.6#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MEM

Longer bar = better

USF

#48

Offense

◀ MEM better

#101

#62

Defense

◀ MEM better

#111

+1.2 #12

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

+0.8 #26

71 plays #29

Pace

Even

72 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #39	32.8 #119	MEM
Yards / play	6.07 #58	6.40 #120	MEM
PPA / play	+0.24 #32	+0.26 #125	MEM
Success rate	44% #63	42% #79	Even

When USF has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	USF off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #82	18.4 #29	MEM
Yards / play	5.11 #110	5.48 #69	MEM
PPA / play	+0.07 #96	+0.10 #73	MEM
Success rate	38% #114	41% #77	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	6.2 #71	13.0 #14	19.2 #27	8.6 #28	5.4 #106	14.0 #57
USF allowed	9.8 #128	8.4 #88	18.2 #117	2.8 #16	11.8 #129	14.6 #105

USF scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	8.0 #36	9.4 #52	17.4 #49	8.2 #34	2.0 #134	10.2 #113
MEM allowed	1.4 #7	6.2 #49	7.6 #16	4.6 #50	6.2 #71	10.8 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.