Arizona @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F5 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

3-2 · Power #79

final

Final

BYU

5-0 · Power #22

▲ winner

Closing spread

BYU -2.5

✓ BYU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 24–27 BYU

✓ BYU (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -3.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -3.5

1 → ARIZ

CloseBYU -2.5

1 pt toward Arizona

Total

Open50.5

▼ 2

Close48.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -3.5 · closed BYU -2.5 · moved 1 toward ARIZmodel BYU -5

model BYU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (152 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (20 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBYU -3.5

CloseBYU -2.5

Total50.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 2.5-point home favorite against ARIZ, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 41–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 2.9; 55.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ASU vs KU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	35–31	W	O50
Very close	UNLV vs FRES 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	59–14	W	O50.5
Close	ARK vs MSST 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	31–28	L	O53.5
Close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Close	UK vs LSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	42–21	W	O50.5
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	ILL vs PUR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & total	-6	24–31	L	O44
Close	GAST vs TROY 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-1	7–28	L	U51
Close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-1	1-1
BYU –W–WW	3-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as underdog; BYU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ OUUUU	1-4	20%	3-2
BYU –U–UO	1-2	33%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 258 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
BYU	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ+9.2 →+6.0▼ 3.2#42

BYU−4.1 →+6.8▲ 10.9#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

BYU

#74

Offense

Even

#61

#57

Defense

BYU better ▶

#19

−0.2 #90

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+0.8 #30

63 plays #111

Pace

BYU faster ▶

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	ARIZ off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #88	15.8 #17	BYU
Yards / play	6.68 #26	4.37 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	−0.05 #16	BYU
Success rate	40% #99	37% #33	BYU

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #44	23.6 #68	BYU
Yards / play	5.94 #65	5.36 #59	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #55	+0.01 #30	ARIZ
Success rate	42% #81	41% #71	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	6.0 #73	4.6 #125	10.6 #108	9.4 #18	7.0 #65	16.4 #34
BYU allowed	2.0 #9	6.4 #55	8.4 #27	4.0 #37	3.4 #19	7.4 #21

BYU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	9.8 #17	8.0 #74	17.8 #45	11.2 #7	4.0 #121	15.2 #42
ARIZ allowed	5.6 #80	8.2 #86	13.8 #85	4.2 #43	5.6 #57	9.8 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.