Cincinnati @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F10 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati

3-2 · Power #45

▲ winner

Final

UCF

3-2 · Power #37

final

Closing spread

UCF -2.5

✓ CIN W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 28–31 UCF

✗ UCF (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -3.5

CloseUCF -2.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUCF -3.5

1 → CIN

CloseUCF -2.5

1 pt toward Cincinnati

Total

Open59.5

▼ 2

Close57.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UCF -3.5 · closed UCF -2.5 · moved 1 toward CINmodel UCF -5.5

model UCF -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (146 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUCF -3.5

CloseUCF -2.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 2.5-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 19–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 2.9; 53.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Very close	KU vs TCU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-1.5	27–38	L	O58.5
Very close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	34–16	W	U53
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-1.5	24–10	W	U55
Very close	LOU vs SYR 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	41–3	W	U55.5
Very close	CIN vs ECU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–25	L	O51.5
Very close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Very close	ND vs UNC 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	44–34	W	O62.5
Very close	WVU vs KU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	32–28	W	O56
Very close	TCU vs WVU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	17–29	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWW–W	3-1	75%	2-0	2-0
UCF WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUU–O	2-2	50%	3-2
UCF OOOOU	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 35 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
UCF	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 0–1 UCF UCF leads · 1 game since 2023 · UCF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	UCF 28 @ Cincinnati 26	UCF -3.5	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.7 →+4.4▲ 6.1#52

UCF+6.5 →+7.3▲ 0.8#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CIN

Longer bar = better

UCF

#23

Offense

◀ CIN better

#37

#85

Defense

Even

#73

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−0.6 #102

68 plays #53

Pace

UCF faster ▶

73 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #37	24.6 #76	CIN
Yards / play	7.11 #16	5.52 #74	CIN
PPA / play	+0.31 #19	+0.13 #88	CIN
Success rate	50% #19	40% #55	CIN

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #33	21.6 #50	Even
Yards / play	6.66 #27	6.33 #118	UCF
PPA / play	+0.16 #70	+0.10 #76	Even
Success rate	50% #17	43% #94	UCF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	13.2 #5	7.4 #87	20.6 #21	7.4 #59	5.4 #106	12.8 #79
UCF allowed	7.0 #99	9.4 #98	16.4 #105	4.8 #53	3.4 #20	8.2 #31

UCF scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	6.0 #73	9.4 #52	15.4 #62	13.0 #3	5.8 #94	18.8 #15
CIN allowed	3.2 #32	6.8 #56	10.0 #48	5.4 #67	6.2 #71	11.6 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.