Kansas State @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 10:25 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

4-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Final

Colorado

4-1 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

KSU -3.5

✓ COLO W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 30–26 COLO

✓ KSU (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -3.5

CloseKSU -3.5

Total49.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -3.5

no move

CloseKSU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▲ 5

Close54.5

Up 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -3.5 · unchangedmodel KSU -4.5

model KSU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 41% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -3.5

CloseKSU -3.5

Total49.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 3.5-point road favorite at COLO, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 31–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 54.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 3.6; 66 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UTAH @ ORST 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–42	L	O57.75
Close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Close	ORST @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–27	L	U57.5
Close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	WAKE @ ARMY 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	70–56	W	O53.75
Close	OU @ ISU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	27–13	W	U58
Close	TROY @ TXST 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	31–13	W	U53.5
Close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	40–43	L	O55
Close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	29–28	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU LLWLW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-3
COLO L–WWW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; COLO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UOUUO	2-3	40%	4-1
COLO O–UOO	3-1	75%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 256 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSU	7-3 70%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
COLO	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+11.5 →+12.5▲ 1.0#17

COLO+0.6 →+3.5▲ 2.9#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

KSU

Longer bar = better

COLO

#23

Offense

◀ KSU better

#55

#44

Defense

Even

#54

0.0 #78

Turnovers

COLO better ▶

+0.8 #26

63 plays #107

Pace

COLO faster ▶

67 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #49	23.0 #65	Even
Yards / play	6.91 #17	5.50 #72	KSU
PPA / play	+0.32 #14	+0.01 #32	Even
Success rate	50% #13	39% #47	KSU

When COLO has the ball

Even matchup

	COLO off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #53	19.6 #32	KSU
Yards / play	6.09 #55	5.42 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #62	+0.06 #55	Even
Success rate	45% #51	36% #19	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	6.8 #59	6.8 #98	13.6 #78	10.2 #10	7.6 #53	17.8 #18
COLO allowed	7.4 #109	10.4 #114	17.8 #113	1.4 #7	3.8 #20	5.2 #8

COLO scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	7.0 #52	8.0 #77	15.0 #60	7.6 #44	7.0 #68	14.6 #50
KSU allowed	3.4 #37	8.6 #90	12.0 #68	3.4 #25	4.2 #32	7.6 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.