Boise State @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Boise State

4-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Final

Hawai'i

2-3 · Power #109

final

Closing spread

BOIS -20.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

60.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 38–18 HAW

✓ BOIS (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -21.5

CloseBOIS -20.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -21.5

1 → HAW

CloseBOIS -20.5

1 pt toward Hawai'i

Total

Open61.5

▼ 1

Close60.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -21.5 · closed BOIS -20.5 · moved 1 toward HAWmodel BOIS -16

model BOIS -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -21.5

CloseBOIS -20.5

Total61.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 20.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 28–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 60.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 18.8; 62.4 points a game (usually 55.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MISS @ VAN 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-17	52–28	W	O59.5
Close	PITT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	54–29	W	O64.25
Close	OKST @ TLSA 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	45–10	W	U62.5
Close	APP @ TXST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	24–36	L	O54.5
Close	ORE @ CAL 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.75	42–24	W	O56.5
Close	CCU @ USA 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-15	27–21	L	U55
Close	LIB @ UNT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-21	35–26	L	P61
Close	WKU @ RICE 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-19	42–21	W	O61.5
Close	BYU @ GASO 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-20	34–17	L	U57.25
Close	FSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-21	41–16	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS LW–WW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1
HAW LW–WL	2-2	50%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS OO–OO	4-0	100%	4-1
HAW UU–UO	1-3	25%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 41 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 44% of games with totals 56.5–64.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	7-2 78%
HAW	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+2.2 →+9.5▲ 7.3#25

HAW−11.7 →−9.7▲ 2.0#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BOIS

Longer bar = better

HAW

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#84

#87

Defense

HAW better ▶

#33

+0.2 #57

Turnovers

◀ BOIS better

−0.2 #87

67 plays #64

Pace

Even

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	50.6 #1	19.0 #27	BOIS
Yards / play	8.00 #2	5.01 #33	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.48 #4	+0.08 #63	BOIS
Success rate	51% #10	34% #7	Even

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #101	30.0 #100	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #105	5.74 #83	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.15 #92	Even
Success rate	45% #52	41% #74	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.0 #21	19.4 #1	28.4 #1	7.0 #57	15.2 #1	22.2 #4
HAW allowed	2.0 #11	7.6 #76	9.6 #38	5.4 #69	4.0 #24	9.4 #33

HAW scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	7.8 #40	4.0 #127	11.8 #99	6.8 #67	5.6 #103	12.4 #88
BOIS allowed	4.8 #62	8.0 #82	12.8 #79	6.8 #90	10.4 #125	17.2 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.