Utah State @ Boise State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Boise State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

1-3 · Power #106

final

Final

Boise State

3-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

BOIS -27.5

✓ BOIS W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 92 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 18–46 BOIS

✓ BOIS (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -28

CloseBOIS -27.5

Total65.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -28

0.5 → USU

CloseBOIS -27.5

0.5 pts toward Utah State

Total

Open65.5

▲ 1

Close66.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -28 · closed BOIS -27.5 · moved 0.5 toward USUmodel BOIS -27.5 matches the line

model BOIS -27.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–29.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 52% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBOIS -28

CloseBOIS -27.5

Total65.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as a 27.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 9, covered 1, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 62–30; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 92 points went over 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 58%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.3 against an average line of 27.5; 54.3 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs MASS 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	49–25	L	O63.5
Close	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	33–7	W	U63
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	WASH vs ASU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-28	15–7	L	U60
Close	TENN vs VAN 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-32	45–21	L	O64.5
Close	UNC vs UVA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-24	27–31	L	P58
Close	ORE vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-29.5	41–19	L	O58.75
Close	MEM vs MTSU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-27	24–7	L	U61.5
Close	FRES vs UNLV 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-30	38–30	L	O59
Close	TENN vs VAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-27	48–24	L	O57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU –LWL	1-2	33%	0-2	1-1
BOIS LW–W	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; BOIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU –UOO	2-1	67%	1-3
BOIS OO–O	3-0	100%	3-1

Went over in Q3. Of 34 earlier overs in games with totals 62.5–70.5, 18% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	5-3-1 63%
BOIS	7-3 70%	6-3 67%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

USU 0–1 BOIS BOIS leads · 1 game since 2023 · BOIS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Boise State 45 @ Utah State 10	BOIS -4	BOIS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.9 →−13.7▼ 6.8#121

BOIS+2.2 →+9.3▲ 7.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USU

Longer bar = better

BOIS

#83

Offense

BOIS better ▶

#10

#123

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#91

−1.0 #120

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+0.3 #60

67 plays #66

Pace

Even

66 plays #75

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #110	30.0 #102	Even
Yards / play	6.39 #40	5.46 #71	USU
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.13 #91	Even
Success rate	41% #90	42% #99	Even

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	47.8 #6	36.3 #129	BOIS
Yards / play	7.97 #4	6.18 #107	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.41 #9	+0.27 #126	BOIS
Success rate	49% #20	49% #128	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USU scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	3.5 #109	7.8 #78	11.3 #98	4.3 #104	6.0 #85	10.3 #110
BOIS allowed	5.3 #76	6.5 #57	11.8 #65	6.8 #87	11.5 #128	18.3 #128

BOIS scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	7.8 #43	15.5 #3	23.3 #13	7.3 #58	17.3 #1	24.5 #2
USU allowed	3.3 #33	15.5 #133	18.8 #121	6.3 #85	11.3 #127	17.5 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.