Clemson @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Clemson

3-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Florida State

1-4 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

CLEM -16.5

✓ FSU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 31–16 FSU

✓ CLEM (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -15.5

CloseCLEM -16.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -15.5

1 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -16.5

1 pt toward Clemson

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -15.5 · closed CLEM -16.5 · moved 1 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -10

model CLEM -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -15.5

CloseCLEM -16.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 16.5-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 29–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.7 against an average line of 14.6; 55.1 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Close	ISU @ HOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-16.5	20–0	W	U43
Close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	45–28	W	O50
Close	ILL @ NU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.75	41–3	W	O38

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LWWW	3-1	75%	—	3-0
FSU LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-2	0-1

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; FSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1
FSU UUUUO	1-4	20%	1-4

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 53% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
FSU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CLEM 17–21 FSU FSU leads · 38 games since 1970 · CLEM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 23 2023	Florida State 31 @ Clemson 24	FSU -2	FSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+12.9 →+13.8▲ 0.9#14

FSU+14.6 →+2.6▼ 12.0#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CLEM

Longer bar = better

FSU

#18

Offense

◀ CLEM better

#123

#76

Defense

◀ CLEM better

#93

+1.5 #8

Turnovers

◀ CLEM better

−1.0 #124

63 plays #97

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

60 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #14	24.6 #76	CLEM
Yards / play	7.23 #17	5.63 #85	CLEM
PPA / play	+0.44 #6	+0.24 #115	CLEM
Success rate	47% #33	42% #96	CLEM

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: CLEM defense

	FSU off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	15.2 #130	25.8 #84	CLEM
Yards / play	4.65 #125	5.95 #101	CLEM
PPA / play	0.00 #115	+0.03 #45	CLEM
Success rate	36% #123	41% #73	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	18.3 #2	11.3 #37	29.5 #2	9.3 #23	3.3 #130	12.5 #80
FSU allowed	3.4 #34	8.8 #94	12.2 #72	7.6 #105	4.8 #47	12.4 #81

FSU scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	4.4 #94	3.4 #128	7.8 #123	4.0 #111	3.4 #126	7.4 #126
CLEM allowed	0.0 #1	8.3 #86	8.3 #30	7.0 #92	10.5 #123	17.5 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.