Boston College @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

4-1 · Power #58

final

Final

Virginia

3-1 · Power #77

▲ winner

Closing spread

UVA -1.5

✓ UVA W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 25–26 UVA

✓ UVA (53%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -2.5

CloseUVA -1.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -2.5

1 → BC

CloseUVA -1.5

1 pt toward Boston College

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -2.5 · closed UVA -1.5 · moved 1 toward BCmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 48%, covered 44% (80 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (40 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -2.5

CloseUVA -1.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 1.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 24–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 53.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 2.8; 44.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN vs ECU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	24–9	W	U55.5
Very close	BSU vs AFA 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	17–24	L	U52
Very close	UL vs GAST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	17–20	L	U62
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	28–14	W	U57.5
Very close	TULN vs UCF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	31–38	L	O54.5
Close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Close	AFA vs FAU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–7	W	U54
Close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	UNLV vs SJSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	31–37	L	O58.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WWWLL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-0
UVA –L–W	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC UOUUU	1-4	20%	4-1
UVA –O–O	2-0	100%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 53% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
UVA	5-5 50%	5-3 63%	7-0-1 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BC 1–0 UVA BC leads · 1 game since 2023 · BC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Virginia 24 @ Boston College 27	BC -5	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−1.3 →+1.9▲ 3.2#63

UVA−2.9 →−0.7▲ 2.2#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

UVA

#72

Offense

UVA better ▶

#52

#32

Defense

◀ BC better

#74

+0.8 #28

Turnovers

◀ BC better

−0.8 #108

61 plays #116

Pace

UVA faster ▶

71 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #68	23.5 #69	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #74	5.63 #84	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #60	+0.11 #86	BC
Success rate	42% #86	39% #57	UVA

When UVA has the ball

Even matchup

	UVA off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #66	15.8 #24	BC
Yards / play	6.46 #38	4.76 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #50	+0.01 #35	Even
Success rate	45% #54	37% #36	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BC scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.2 #102	12.4 #22	16.6 #59	6.2 #72	7.0 #58	13.2 #70
UVA allowed	3.3 #33	7.8 #78	11.0 #58	7.5 #104	5.0 #55	12.5 #81

UVA scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	9.3 #26	11.8 #29	21.0 #25	4.3 #101	5.0 #103	9.3 #114
BC allowed	2.6 #24	8.0 #82	10.6 #57	4.0 #37	1.2 #2	5.2 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.