Boston College @ Virginia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Thu, Oct 17, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Virginia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

4-2 · Power #58

final

Final

Virginia Tech

3-3 · Power #38

▲ winner

Closing spread

VT -8.5

✓ VT W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

BC 20–28 VT

✓ VT (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -7

CloseVT -8.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -7

1.5 → VT

CloseVT -8.5

1.5 pts toward Virginia Tech

Total

Open50.5

▼ 4

Close46.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -7 · closed VT -8.5 · moved 1.5 toward VTmodel VT -10

model VT -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 50% (67 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVT -7

CloseVT -8.5

Total50.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as an 8.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: VT won 42–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 7.5; 50.6 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARK vs MSST 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	3–7	L	U46
Very close	MRSH vs UL 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	13–23	L	U45
Close	LOU vs UK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread	-7.5	31–38	L	O47.5
Close	AFA vs WYO 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	24–14	W	U46.5
Close	GT vs DUKE 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	24–14	P	U52.5
Close	JMU vs GAST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	42–40	L	O52
Close	CIN vs ISU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-5	10–30	L	U42.5
Close	SC vs MSST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation	-6	37–30	W	O47
Close	TROY vs USM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	27–10	W	U44
Close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	48–41	W	O44

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-1
VT LWLWW	3-3	50%	0-2	2-3

Venue/role: BC away, as underdog; VT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC OUUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
VT UOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3

Went over in Q3. Of 237 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
VT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BC 11–23 VT VT leads · 34 games since 1993 · VT has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Virginia Tech 48 @ Boston College 22	VT -2.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−1.3 →+1.3▲ 2.6#63

VT+4.6 →+7.3▲ 2.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

#81

Offense

Even

#73

#25

Defense

◀ BC better

#60

+0.2 #62

Turnovers

VT better ▶

+0.5 #43

61 plays #117

Pace

VT faster ▶

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	27.2 #80	22.7 #62	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #80	5.43 #68	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.06 #53	VT
Success rate	42% #84	40% #57	VT

When VT has the ball

Advantage: BC defense

	VT off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #56	17.2 #20	BC
Yards / play	5.80 #76	4.84 #22	BC
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	+0.02 #35	BC
Success rate	41% #91	37% #24	BC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BC scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	4.7 #92	11.5 #21	16.2 #50	5.2 #81	5.8 #92	11.0 #103
VT allowed	5.2 #70	6.0 #48	11.2 #62	5.2 #63	5.2 #47	10.3 #41

VT scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	5.8 #75	6.2 #103	12.0 #95	6.7 #66	11.8 #6	18.5 #16
BC allowed	2.2 #11	7.7 #76	9.8 #40	3.3 #20	4.0 #23	7.3 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.