Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

5-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Georgia Tech

5-2 · Power #36

final

Closing spread

ND -14.5

✓ ND W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 34–20 GT

✓ ND (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -8.5

CloseND -14.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -8.5

6 → ND

CloseND -14.5

6 pts toward Notre Dame

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -8.5 · closed ND -14.5 · moved 6 toward NDmodel ND -12.5

model ND -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (43 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -8.5

CloseND -14.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like ND as a 14.5-point neutral-site favorite against GT, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 3 similar games. 44 points stayed under 49.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 34.7 against an average line of 15.5; 73.3 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UGA vs LSU 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	50–30	W	O52
Loose	TEX vs OKST 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-14.5	49–21	W	O56.5
Loose	LSU vs PUR 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread	-15	63–7	W	O54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ND LWLWW	4-2	67%	—	3-2
GT LWL–W	3-2	60%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: ND neutral, as favorite; GT neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND UOUOO	3-3	50%	5-1
GT UOUUO	2-4	33%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
GT	7-3 70%	6-2 75%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+18.9 →+18.6▼ 0.3#10

GT+2.9 →+7.2▲ 4.3#33

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

#44

Offense

GT better ▶

#22

Defense

◀ ND better

#70

+0.5 #37

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #47

63 plays #104

Pace

GT faster ▶

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	35.2 #26	21.4 #48	ND
Yards / play	6.35 #40	5.58 #75	ND
PPA / play	+0.23 #38	+0.13 #86	ND
Success rate	43% #71	41% #72	Even

When GT has the ball

Even matchup

	GT off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #42	11.7 #8	ND
Yards / play	6.68 #26	4.25 #4	ND
PPA / play	+0.33 #13	−0.18 #1	Even
Success rate	51% #8	36% #22	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ND scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.7 #20	10.3 #39	19.0 #28	8.7 #23	7.5 #56	16.2 #33
GT allowed	4.1 #50	6.7 #54	10.9 #56	5.1 #61	5.4 #50	10.6 #47

GT scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	8.4 #27	9.3 #52	17.7 #36	5.4 #80	9.7 #19	15.1 #46
ND allowed	4.5 #56	2.7 #6	7.2 #12	1.2 #4	3.3 #15	4.5 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.