Stanford @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff64°F7 mphgusts 19Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Stanford

2-3 · Power #96

final

Final

Notre Dame

4-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -22.5

✓ ND W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 12–35 ND

✓ ND (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -23.5

CloseND -22.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -23.5

1 → STAN

CloseND -22.5

1 pt toward Stanford

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -23.5 · closed ND -22.5 · moved 1 toward STANmodel ND -29

model ND -29

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–24.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 47% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -23.5

CloseND -22.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 22.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 49–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.4 against an average line of 24; 45.6 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5
Close	PSU vs ILL 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-24.5	18–20	L	U45.5
Close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	39–17	L	O52.5
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	ISU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-20	43–10	W	O48
Close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Close	IOWA vs CSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-23.5	24–14	L	U43.75
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Close	UCF vs TEM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-23.5	70–13	W	O46.5
Close	UTAH vs COLO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-24	28–13	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
ND WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OUUUU	1-4	20%	2-3
ND UUOUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q3. Of 212 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ND	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

STAN 14–26 ND ND leads · 40 games since 1924 · ND has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Notre Dame 56 @ Stanford 23	ND -26	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−5.0 →−4.9▲ 0.1#89

ND+18.9 →+17.2▼ 1.7#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

STAN

Longer bar = better

#115

Offense

ND better ▶

#58

#96

Defense

ND better ▶

#11

−0.6 #105

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+0.6 #34

68 plays #48

Pace

◀ STAN faster

63 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	STAN off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #108	12.6 #9	ND
Yards / play	4.95 #120	4.41 #13	ND
PPA / play	−0.07 #132	−0.17 #1	ND
Success rate	40% #100	36% #19	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	32.4 #46	27.2 #91	ND
Yards / play	6.16 #51	5.96 #103	ND
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.17 #99	ND
Success rate	42% #84	43% #92	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	4.2 #99	6.0 #104	10.2 #108	6.2 #69	6.6 #78	12.8 #79
ND allowed	4.0 #41	3.2 #12	7.2 #12	1.4 #6	4.0 #31	5.4 #9

ND scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	9.0 #23	9.6 #50	18.6 #34	6.2 #69	7.6 #49	13.8 #62
STAN allowed	4.8 #61	6.8 #56	11.6 #62	6.8 #89	8.8 #116	15.6 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.