Georgia Tech @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Tech

4-2 · Power #36

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

3-3 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

GT -3.5

✓ GT W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

GT 32–29 UNC

✓ GT (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGT -6

CloseGT -3.5

Total57.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGT -6

2.5 → UNC

CloseGT -3.5

2.5 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open57.5

▲ 3

Close60.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GT -6 · closed GT -3.5 · moved 2.5 toward UNCmodel GT -1.5

model GT -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 41% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGT -6

CloseGT -3.5

Total57.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GT as a 3.5-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 41–34; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 75 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 3; 65.8 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV @ CSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	52–10	W	O57.75
Very close	WAKE @ LOU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	21–48	L	O66.25
Very close	UCF @ CIN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	28–26	L	U60
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Very close	NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	30–31	L	O54.5
Close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-2	29–28	L	U58
Close	WASH @ WSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	51–33	W	O60
Close	OU @ TTU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	48–51	L	O65.5
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	35–24	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GT –LWL–	2-2	50%	0-2	1-1
UNC LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-4	0-1

Venue/role: GT away, as favorite; UNC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GT –UOUU	1-4	20%	4-2
UNC OUOUU	2-4	33%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 137 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GT	6-4 60%	5-3 63%	3-6 33%
UNC	4-6 40%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GT 1–0 UNC GT leads · 1 game since 2023 · GT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	North Carolina 42 @ Georgia Tech 46	UNC -12	GT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GT+2.9 →+6.1▲ 3.2#41

UNC+7.2 →+2.5▼ 4.7#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

UNC

#30

Offense

◀ GT better

#68

#64

Defense

◀ GT better

#78

+0.2 #67

Turnovers

◀ GT better

−0.3 #96

66 plays #72

Pace

UNC faster ▶

74 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GT has the ball

Advantage: GT offense

	GT off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	31.5 #52	28.7 #96	GT
Yards / play	6.60 #32	5.79 #95	GT
PPA / play	+0.31 #18	+0.12 #84	GT
Success rate	50% #18	38% #38	Even

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #45	19.3 #36	Even
Yards / play	6.08 #56	5.47 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.11 #78	Even
Success rate	42% #79	41% #73	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GT scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	8.7 #27	8.7 #65	17.3 #48	5.2 #88	9.0 #31	14.2 #57
UNC allowed	6.3 #91	10.3 #113	16.7 #106	4.7 #54	7.3 #96	12.0 #68

UNC scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.5 #46	9.2 #55	16.7 #53	7.2 #58	8.8 #37	16.0 #36
GT allowed	3.7 #39	6.7 #55	10.3 #52	4.3 #47	4.7 #43	9.0 #33

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.