Ball State @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-4 · Power #126

▲ winner

Final

Kent State

0-5 · Power #134

final

Closing spread

BALL -3.5

✓ KENT W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 72 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 32–28 KENT

✓ BALL (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBALL -6.5

CloseBALL -3.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBALL -6.5

3 → KENT

CloseBALL -3.5

3 pts toward Kent State

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BALL -6.5 · closed BALL -3.5 · moved 3 toward KENTmodel BALL -4.5

model BALL -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 41% (77 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 45% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBALL -6.5

CloseBALL -3.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like BALL as a 3.5-point road favorite at KENT, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BALL won 37–35; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 8 similar games. 72 points went over 58.5, as in 5 of 8.

Favorite won

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 5.6; 62 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CONN @ MASS 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation	-3	13–27	L	U57
Loose	USU @ TEM 2024 · Week 4 · loose	-6.5	29–45	L	O53.5
Loose	LT @ CLT 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-2	21–26	L	U66.5
Loose	EMU @ AKR 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & situation	-6.25	34–28	L	O57.25
Loose	UTEP @ CLT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	41–35	W	O56
Loose	WKU @ MTSU 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	49–21	W	O54
Loose	OHIO @ AKR 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-9.75	34–17	W	U55
Loose	LT @ FIU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	34–42	L	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL W–WLW	3-1	75%	1-1	1-0
KENT LLL–L	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: BALL away, as favorite; KENT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL O–OOO	4-0	100%	1-4
KENT OUO–O	3-1	75%	0-5

Went over in Q4. Of 200 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	4-6 40%	8-1 89%	5-4 56%
KENT	0-10 0%	1-8 11%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BALL 1–0 KENT BALL leads · 1 game since 2023 · BALL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Kent State 3 @ Ball State 34	BALL -10.5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−11.2 →−19.8▼ 8.6#131

KENT−20.0 →−26.0▼ 6.0#134

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

BALL

Longer bar = better

KENT

#106

Offense

◀ BALL better

#133

#134

Defense

Even

#135

−0.8 #112

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #103

69 plays #44

Pace

◀ BALL faster

57 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: BALL offense

	BALL off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #97	51.4 #137	BALL
Yards / play	4.72 #126	7.39 #134	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #117	+0.34 #132	Even
Success rate	42% #83	54% #136	BALL

When KENT has the ball

Even matchup

	KENT off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	14.8 #132	48.2 #136	Even
Yards / play	3.85 #136	8.22 #136	Even
PPA / play	−0.11 #134	+0.35 #135	Even
Success rate	33% #130	50% #129	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	6.2 #71	4.2 #124	10.4 #107	5.6 #80	9.0 #31	14.6 #50
KENT allowed	15.0 #134	17.4 #133	32.4 #134	10.2 #129	8.8 #112	19.0 #129

KENT scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	2.8 #124	5.6 #112	8.4 #120	3.4 #117	3.0 #131	6.4 #129
BALL allowed	12.0 #131	10.2 #110	22.2 #130	9.4 #126	16.6 #134	26.0 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.