Akron @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Akron

1-5 · Power #124

final

Final

Western Michigan

2-3 · Power #107

▲ winner

Closing spread

WMU -9.5

✓ WMU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 23–33 WMU

✓ WMU (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -9.5

CloseWMU -9.5

Total53.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -9.5

no move

CloseWMU -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

▼ 5

Close48.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -9.5 · unchangedmodel WMU -10

model WMU -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 42% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -9.5

CloseWMU -9.5

Total53.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WMU as a 9.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 6, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WMU won 34–24; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.7 against an average line of 10; 48.9 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs AKR 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-9.5	12–44	L	O52
Very close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Close	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Close	NIU vs BGSU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-9	34–26	L	O44.75
Close	CSU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	27–17	W	U49
Close	CMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	17–10	L	U44
Close	CMU vs BALL 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	37–34	L	O50.5
Close	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-3	2-3
WMU WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; WMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR OOOUU	4-2	67%	1-5
WMU UOOUO	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q3. Of 254 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%
WMU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

AKR 4–16 WMU WMU leads · 20 games since 1975 · WMU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.9 →−17.5▼ 3.6#127

WMU−10.3 →−10.5▼ 0.2#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

AKR

Longer bar = better

WMU

#130

Offense

WMU better ▶

#52

#120

Defense

Even

#122

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

0.0 #70

60 plays #123

Pace

Even

60 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Even matchup

	AKR off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	15.2 #130	36.8 #124	Even
Yards / play	4.30 #132	6.21 #110	WMU
PPA / play	−0.06 #130	+0.27 #126	Even
Success rate	36% #126	50% #128	Even

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #80	38.0 #128	WMU
Yards / play	6.07 #57	6.22 #111	WMU
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	+0.23 #117	WMU
Success rate	47% #28	48% #124	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.8 #108	6.3 #99	10.2 #111	1.7 #130	3.3 #129	5.0 #133
WMU allowed	8.4 #119	11.0 #117	19.4 #121	8.2 #113	9.2 #122	17.4 #124

WMU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	7.6 #41	5.6 #112	13.2 #83	7.6 #50	6.8 #69	14.4 #54
AKR allowed	8.8 #126	9.2 #96	18.0 #114	7.8 #110	12.2 #131	20.0 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.