Old Dominion @ Georgia State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

1-4 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Georgia State

2-2 · Power #110

final

Closing spread

GAST -2.5

✓ ODU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 24–26 GAST

✗ GAST (55%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGAST -1.5

CloseGAST -2.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGAST -1.5

1 → GAST

CloseGAST -2.5

1 pt toward Georgia State

Total

Open54.5

▼ 1

Close53.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GAST -1.5 · closed GAST -2.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel ODU -0.5

model ODU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (146 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGAST -1.5

CloseGAST -2.5

Total54.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GAST as a 2.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 21–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 2.8; 52.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	NAVY vs USF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	30–44	L	O54.5
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25
Very close	MTSU vs LT 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	31–23	W	P54
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	21–38	L	O57
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	UTEP vs MTSU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	13–24	L	U52
Very close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	38–19	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU WLLWL	2-3	40%	2-1	2-2
GAST –LWL	1-2	33%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: ODU away, as underdog; GAST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU UUOOO	3-2	60%	1-4
GAST –UOO	2-1	67%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 53% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
GAST	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ODU 1–0 GAST ODU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ODU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Georgia State 24 @ Old Dominion 25	ODU -1.5	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−8.4 →−7.3▲ 1.1#98

GAST−5.1 →−10.7▼ 5.6#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ODU

Longer bar = better

GAST

#111

Offense

GAST better ▶

#92

#74

Defense

◀ ODU better

#116

−0.6 #109

Turnovers

GAST better ▶

+0.3 #57

68 plays #55

Pace

Even

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #105	31.5 #110	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #121	6.26 #116	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.26 #124	ODU
Success rate	36% #121	45% #113	Even

When GAST has the ball

Even matchup

	GAST off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #106	30.4 #101	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #79	5.63 #83	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #89	+0.10 #74	Even
Success rate	41% #95	37% #37	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	5.6 #79	6.0 #104	11.6 #98	4.6 #103	7.2 #60	11.8 #92
GAST allowed	7.0 #99	6.8 #55	13.8 #84	7.0 #92	10.8 #127	17.8 #125

GAST scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	3.3 #118	4.8 #123	8.0 #124	10.0 #14	5.3 #112	15.3 #40
ODU allowed	8.8 #125	4.8 #28	13.6 #82	8.2 #113	8.6 #114	16.8 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.