Texas State @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Old Dominion · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Texas State

4-2 · Power #54

final

Final

Old Dominion

2-4 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -10.5

✓ ODU W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

TXST 33–23 ODU

✗ TXST (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -10.5

CloseTXST -10.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTXST -10.5

no move

CloseTXST -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open61.5

▼ 2

Close59.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TXST -10.5 · unchangedmodel TXST -8.5

model TXST -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 64% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTXST -10.5

CloseTXST -10.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 10.5-point road favorite at ODU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ODU won 24–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 10; 56.2 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MEM @ TEM 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11	31–34	L	O58.5
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	TXST @ TROY 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-14.5	38–17	W	U56
Very close	FRES @ HAW 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.75	24–27	L	U64.25
Very close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12	45–31	W	O55
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	PITT @ SYR 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.25	31–14	W	U58.25
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8	34–31	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST WLLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	3-2
ODU LLWLW	3-3	50%	0-2	3-2

Venue/role: TXST away, as favorite; ODU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST OOOUU	3-2	60%	4-2
ODU UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 39 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 46% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
ODU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST−3.2 →+4.1▲ 7.3#57

ODU−8.4 →−6.7▲ 1.7#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TXST

Longer bar = better

ODU

#25

Offense

◀ TXST better

#112

#37

Defense

◀ TXST better

#59

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #95

72 plays #17

Pace

◀ TXST faster

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	38.2 #21	27.7 #94	TXST
Yards / play	6.62 #28	5.41 #67	TXST
PPA / play	+0.25 #27	+0.06 #50	TXST
Success rate	48% #23	37% #25	Even

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	ODU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #107	22.3 #57	TXST
Yards / play	4.96 #119	4.85 #22	TXST
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	+0.03 #37	TXST
Success rate	37% #122	38% #32	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	14.3 #1	10.8 #31	25.2 #6	8.0 #28	5.0 #115	13.0 #72
ODU allowed	7.3 #110	5.2 #34	12.5 #70	6.8 #93	8.3 #109	15.2 #113

ODU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	5.8 #77	5.0 #118	10.8 #105	5.0 #90	7.2 #66	12.2 #89
TXST allowed	2.2 #12	8.5 #85	10.7 #53	7.3 #107	4.3 #27	11.7 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.