Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Coastal Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

5-1 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Coastal Carolina

4-2 · Power #101

final

Closing spread

UL -6.5

✓ UL W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 30–25 CCU

✓ UL (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -3.5

CloseUL -6.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -3.5

3 → UL

CloseUL -6.5

3 pts toward Louisiana

Total

Open55.5

▲ 1

Close56.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -3.5 · closed UL -6.5 · moved 3 toward ULmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 57% (78 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 45% (65 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -3.5

CloseUL -6.5

Total55.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 6.5-point road favorite at CCU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UL won 34–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 5.7; 63 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	24–17	P	U59.5
Very close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & situation	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Very close	MEM @ UAB 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	45–21	W	O62
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5
Very close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	14–41	L	U58
Very close	TOL @ NIU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	52–32	W	O59
Close	KU @ CIN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	49–16	W	O59.25
Close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & rest	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL WLWLL	2-3	40%	2-1	1-2
CCU WLLWL	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; CCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UOOUU	2-3	40%	5-1
CCU OUOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 256 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	6-4 60%	4-4-1 50%	6-3 67%
CCU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−5.1 →−1.9▲ 3.2#78

CCU−2.5 →−4.7▼ 2.2#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

CCU

#20

Offense

◀ UL better

#65

#84

Defense

Even

#89

+0.7 #34

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #45

64 plays #97

Pace

Even

65 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	34.2 #32	31.2 #110	UL
Yards / play	6.74 #21	5.78 #88	UL
PPA / play	+0.32 #14	+0.08 #61	UL
Success rate	50% #12	43% #97	UL

When CCU has the ball

Even matchup

	CCU off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	33.2 #39	22.7 #63	CCU
Yards / play	6.14 #52	5.24 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #70	+0.14 #93	CCU
Success rate	40% #100	47% #124	CCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UL scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.7 #79	14.0 #5	19.7 #23	8.3 #26	6.2 #82	14.5 #50
CCU allowed	5.7 #78	11.0 #118	16.7 #108	6.3 #84	8.2 #106	14.5 #105

CCU scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	10.3 #14	9.2 #54	19.5 #24	8.0 #28	5.7 #94	13.7 #63
UL allowed	1.7 #9	9.7 #102	11.3 #62	7.5 #111	3.8 #19	11.3 #55

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.