Georgia State @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Thu, Oct 17, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

2-3 · Power #110

final

Final

Marshall

3-3 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -8.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 21–29 MRSH

✓ MRSH (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -9.5

CloseMRSH -8.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -9.5

1 → GAST

CloseMRSH -8.5

1 pt toward Georgia State

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -9.5 · closed MRSH -8.5 · moved 1 toward GASTmodel MRSH -9.5

model MRSH -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 49% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (58 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -9.5

CloseMRSH -8.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as an 8.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 35–20; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 50.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 8.1; 48.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs USF 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	29–14	W	U55.5
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Very close	OHIO vs BGSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	38–14	W	U52.5
Very close	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & spread	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Very close	UL vs USM 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	31–34	L	O52.5
Very close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9	38–28	W	O47
Very close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & spread	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Very close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-6	18–34	L	O50.5
Very close	BUFF vs OHIO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	27–26	L	U54.5
Very close	FAU vs ECU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	7–22	L	U44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST –LWLL	1-3	25%	—	1-0
MRSH WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST –UOOU	2-2	50%	2-3
MRSH UOUOU	2-4	33%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 291 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
MRSH	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GAST 1–0 MRSH GAST leads · 1 game since 2023 · GAST has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Marshall 24 @ Georgia State 41	GAST -1.5	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−5.1 →−11.1▼ 6.0#114

MRSH−5.5 →−4.7▲ 0.8#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

GAST

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#107

Offense

MRSH better ▶

#72

#106

Defense

MRSH better ▶

#82

0.0 #73

Turnovers

MRSH better ▶

+0.3 #55

69 plays #43

Pace

◀ GAST faster

65 plays #88

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	GAST off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #114	27.3 #91	MRSH
Yards / play	5.45 #99	5.44 #70	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	+0.12 #81	MRSH
Success rate	39% #105	42% #87	Even

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: MRSH offense

	MRSH off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #67	29.4 #99	MRSH
Yards / play	5.82 #71	6.02 #101	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.14 #75	+0.22 #117	MRSH
Success rate	43% #76	44% #108	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	2.6 #126	5.2 #113	7.8 #127	8.0 #28	5.6 #102	13.6 #67
MRSH allowed	3.8 #40	6.3 #53	10.2 #45	8.7 #119	8.5 #113	17.2 #125

MRSH scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	5.7 #78	10.8 #29	16.5 #46	5.7 #79	7.0 #68	12.7 #79
GAST allowed	7.0 #108	5.4 #42	12.4 #72	7.0 #98	10.0 #124	17.0 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.