UL Monroe @ Marshall: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Marshall · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

5-2 · Power #115

final

Final

Marshall

4-3 · Power #69

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -10.5

✓ ULM W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 18–29 MRSH

✓ MRSH (78%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -10.5

CloseMRSH -10.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMRSH -10.5

no move

CloseMRSH -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MRSH -10.5 · unchangedmodel MRSH -11

model MRSH -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 40% (77 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMRSH -10.5

CloseMRSH -10.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 10.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MRSH won 28–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 10; 44.2 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	TROY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-8.5	10–9	L	U45.5
Close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	24–7	W	U50
Close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Close	FAU vs UTEP 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-11	28–25	L	O49
Close	JXST vs LT 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-9	56–17	W	O54.5
Close	FRES vs WYO 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-14	30–0	W	U50.5
Close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Close	WKU vs SHSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-11	28–23	L	U52.25
Close	NMSU vs FIU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	34–17	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM LWWWL	5-2	71%	1-2	3-2
MRSH WWWWW	7-0	100%	4-0	4-0

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; MRSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM OUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2
MRSH OUOUO	3-4	43%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 286 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MRSH	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−17.3 →−10.8▲ 6.5#112

MRSH−5.5 →−3.9▲ 1.6#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ULM

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#111

Offense

MRSH better ▶

#53

#73

Defense

Even

#82

+0.4 #39

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

+0.1 #61

57 plays #135

Pace

MRSH faster ▶

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: MRSH defense

	ULM off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #109	26.3 #82	MRSH
Yards / play	5.08 #115	5.51 #68	MRSH
PPA / play	+0.09 #93	+0.12 #79	Even
Success rate	36% #126	43% #97	MRSH

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #55	23.7 #68	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #53	5.35 #55	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #55	+0.05 #47	Even
Success rate	45% #48	47% #120	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.9 #111	7.3 #92	11.1 #106	3.1 #122	7.7 #54	10.9 #104
MRSH allowed	3.3 #25	6.9 #56	10.1 #35	8.4 #120	7.7 #95	16.1 #114

MRSH scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	6.4 #61	11.3 #20	17.7 #34	4.9 #93	7.4 #63	12.3 #88
ULM allowed	6.7 #102	4.4 #12	11.1 #54	6.3 #87	6.3 #72	12.6 #77

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.