Old Dominion @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Old Dominion

4-4 · Power #78

final

Final

App State

3-4 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

ODU -2.5

✓ APP W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

ODU 30–28 APP

✗ ODU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -2.5

CloseODU -2.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenODU -2.5

no move

CloseODU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open60.5

▼ 2

Close58.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ODU -2.5 · unchangedmodel ODU -2

model ODU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 47% (120 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -2.5

CloseODU -2.5

Total60.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ODU as a 2.5-point road favorite at APP, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 28–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 2.7; 64.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	RICE @ LT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	42–41	L	O57
Very close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Very close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Very close	TLSA @ TULN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	20–13	W	U55.5
Very close	BALL @ NIU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	29–30	L	U59.5
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	FAU @ UNT 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	28–45	L	O67.5
Close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Close	WSU @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-4	31–20	W	U63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ODU WLWWW	5-3	63%	3-1	0-1
APP W–LWL	2-4	33%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: ODU away, as favorite; APP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ODU OOUUO	4-4	50%	4-4
APP U–OUU	2-4	33%	3-4

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ODU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
APP	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ODU 3–4 APP APP leads · 7 games since 2015 · ODU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	App State 21 @ Old Dominion 28	APP -6	ODU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ODU−8.4 →−3.1▲ 5.3#80

APP−0.7 →−8.7▼ 8.0#100

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ODU

Longer bar = better

APP

#90

Offense

APP better ▶

#72

#55

Defense

◀ ODU better

#132

+0.1 #69

Turnovers

◀ ODU better

−1.6 #136

68 plays #62

Pace

APP faster ▶

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ODU has the ball

Advantage: ODU offense

	ODU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #87	36.4 #127	ODU
Yards / play	5.37 #101	6.88 #132	ODU
PPA / play	+0.13 #70	+0.35 #136	ODU
Success rate	40% #103	51% #133	ODU

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #83	24.9 #75	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #56	5.50 #67	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.07 #52	ODU
Success rate	43% #70	37% #24	ODU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ODU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	6.9 #50	6.8 #103	13.6 #78	5.5 #82	7.0 #73	12.5 #81
APP allowed	10.7 #132	13.3 #130	24.0 #132	6.6 #94	5.9 #57	12.4 #73

APP scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	2.1 #128	12.1 #11	14.3 #64	5.4 #85	7.0 #73	12.4 #83
ODU allowed	5.5 #72	4.8 #16	10.3 #37	6.8 #97	7.9 #97	14.6 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.