Vanderbilt @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

5-3 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

3-5 · Power #33

final

Closing spread

AUB -7.5

✓ VAN W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 22–29 AUB

✗ AUB (71%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -6.5

CloseAUB -7.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -6.5

1 → AUB

CloseAUB -7.5

1 pt toward Auburn

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -6.5 · closed AUB -7.5 · moved 1 toward AUBmodel AUB -8

model AUB -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (101 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -6.5

CloseAUB -7.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 7.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: VAN won 17–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 6.8; 51.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs WVU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	34–17	W	O47
Very close	VT vs BC 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-8.5	42–21	W	O47.5
Very close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	31–16	W	U52
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.75	34–43	L	O51
Very close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Very close	BOIS vs AFA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	27–19	W	O44.75
Very close	SDSU vs USU 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	13–46	L	O49.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	CIN vs ASU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-5	24–14	W	U51
Very close	ISU vs WVU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	31–14	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WWWLW	6-2	75%	2-1	5-0
AUB LLWWW	5-3	63%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OOUUU	5-3	63%	5-3
AUB UOUUU	3-5	38%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
AUB	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VAN 0–1 AUB AUB leads · 1 game since 2023 · AUB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Auburn 31 @ Vanderbilt 15	AUB -12.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN−6.1 →+3.5▲ 9.6#53

AUB+7.1 →+8.6▲ 1.5#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

VAN

Longer bar = better

AUB

#49

Offense

Even

#54

#81

Defense

AUB better ▶

#27

+0.6 #30

Turnovers

◀ VAN better

−1.1 #129

63 plays #109

Pace

Even

63 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	VAN off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #41	19.5 #26	Even
Yards / play	5.59 #83	4.87 #21	AUB
PPA / play	+0.21 #34	+0.04 #37	Even
Success rate	46% #39	37% #25	Even

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: AUB offense

	AUB off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #72	22.8 #58	Even
Yards / play	6.86 #16	5.60 #75	AUB
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.14 #93	Even
Success rate	45% #40	44% #99	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	6.3 #66	9.8 #43	16.0 #49	4.3 #104	10.0 #11	14.3 #53
AUB allowed	5.5 #72	3.4 #7	8.9 #23	2.5 #7	8.1 #101	10.6 #42

AUB scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.5 #57	6.8 #102	13.3 #83	7.9 #32	6.5 #83	14.4 #51
VAN allowed	4.8 #55	4.5 #13	9.3 #27	6.8 #96	5.5 #50	12.3 #69

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.