Massachusetts @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Mississippi State

Weather at kickoff79°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

2-6 · Power #125

final

Final

Mississippi State

1-7 · Power #72

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSST -18.5

✓ MSST W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 20–38 MSST

✓ MSST (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSST -18.5

CloseMSST -18.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMSST -18.5

no move

CloseMSST -18.5

No change since the open

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MSST -18.5 · unchangedmodel MSST -18.5 matches the line

model MSST -18.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 52% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMSST -18.5

CloseMSST -18.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSST as an 18.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 45–20; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 58.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 46%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 18.6; 63.9 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Very close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5
Close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	MSST vs WMU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	41–28	L	O55
Close	JXST vs NMSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-21	54–13	W	O58.5
Close	KENT vs BGSU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	U56
Close	EMU vs MASS 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-20	20–13	L	U53.5
Close	HOU vs TEM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-20	43–36	L	O56
Close	UNT vs FIU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	52–14	W	O63.25
Close	USU vs NEV 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	41–24	W	O54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLLW	3-5	38%	2-2	2-3
MSST –WWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	1-1

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OUOUU	3-5	38%	2-6
MSST –UOOO	5-2	71%	1-7

Went over in Q4. Of 234 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MSST	2-8 20%	5-3-1 63%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−12.1 →−17.4▼ 5.3#125

MSST+1.2 →−3.6▼ 4.8#84

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MASS

Longer bar = better

MSST

#113

Offense

MSST better ▶

#82

#91

Defense

◀ MASS better

#132

−0.1 #80

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #90

66 plays #76

Pace

MSST faster ▶

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Even matchup

	MASS off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	19.1 #124	36.4 #126	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #122	6.86 #131	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	+0.33 #134	MASS
Success rate	38% #110	53% #136	MASS

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #78	30.0 #103	MSST
Yards / play	5.63 #80	5.64 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #71	+0.16 #96	MSST
Success rate	40% #100	42% #88	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	3.5 #116	7.0 #97	10.5 #112	2.1 #128	6.5 #80	8.6 #123
MSST allowed	8.1 #119	14.8 #131	22.9 #130	6.4 #88	7.1 #89	13.5 #92

MSST scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.8 #94	7.5 #87	12.3 #97	7.1 #49	7.8 #49	14.9 #45
MASS allowed	5.3 #65	7.6 #73	12.9 #77	9.4 #129	7.4 #93	16.8 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.